We’ve got a clash at the top of Nations League Group 4 on Saturday. Portugal are rolling through this group with four wins from four and can clinch the group with a win or a draw against Denmark, currently in second place. Will the Portuguese wrap up the group? Or will the Danes push things to matchday six?
Portugal is a -205 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a draw priced at +350. Denmark is +450 to spring the upset.
Portugal vs. Denmark Pick, Best Bet
The first match between these sides was quite the back-and-forth affair. Portugal opened the scoring 13 minutes in, only to concede an equalizer ten minutes later. Almost immediately, they retook the lead and held it into the second half before Denmark answered back. Vitinha supplied a third go-ahead goal in the 67th minute, and a João Félix goal in the 87th sealed three points for the Portuguese.
That was a crucial win for Portugal for several reasons. First, it gave them a win against all three sides in the group, securing a spot in the knockout stages. It was also the first match after Cristiano Ronaldo’s abrupt, dramatic exit from the team. The aging striker loudly and publicly beefed with new manager Jorge Jesus, prompting Ronaldo to leave the training grounds and retire from international play soon after.
Getting a big win to move past the drama is a big deal for the defending Nations League champs. It’s never easy to move to a new era with your squad, especially when one of the departing players is the most important in the team’s history. Four wins in four tries for Jesus’ project is an excellent sign, and with Gonçalo Ramos and Félix cooking at the top of the formation, their attack is in great hands.
Denmark’s performance has been a mixed bag. They’ve handled business twice against Wales, picking up two clean sheets and two wins, but losses against Portugal and Norway are concerning. To make matters worse, they conceded seven combined goals in those two games. The back line needs to be much better, and it starts with Joachim Andersen, the trusted metronome at the center of their defense. If they can’t produce better results, their attack has little chance of keeping up with Portugal.
Mikkel Damsgaard is the man who can turn the tide for Denmark. The Brentford winger is one of the best crossers in the world, and his wide-area service to Rasmus Højlund can break this Portuguese defense and produce results. If he can break out on the counter and find the right service, Denmark can put enough pressure on to get all three points. The Portuguese wide backs will have their hands full with him all night long.
Ultimately, I don’t believe Denmark’s back line is good enough to deliver three points. But I do believe the Damsgaard-Højlund connection, plus Denmark’s strong possession metrics, will produce a goal or two. The best bet here is on another back-and-forth attacking effort.
