Saturday’s NBA slate is a smaller one, but there are still a couple of good games to keep an eye on. The Heat just won a shootout against the Cavaliers last night in NBA Cup play, scoring 133 points – their second-highest tally of the season. Now, they’re back at .500 and hosting the Pistons tonight, who are coming off back-to-back wins and just saw their superstar post a career-best game in his last appearance. This could be a fun one between Eastern Conference hopefuls.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s Pistons vs. Heat matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pistons vs. Heat prediction, preview
At the moment, the Pistons are third in the Eastern Conference at 8-3 following a pair of victories. They’re without Jalen Duren at the moment with the All-Star center ruled out as he recovers from a hamstring strain, while Isaiah Joe is also out due to a hip contusion. This is still a formidable team that ranks eighth in NETRTG at +7.7, though.
Detroit’s defense was the key to success last season, a trend that’s continued into this year. The unit allows just 107.8 PPG and sits fourth in DEFRTG as well, allowing the sixth-lowest FG% (43.6%) and 3P% (32.7%) to opponents. The Pistons are also top-six in both steals and blocks, disrupting opponents and forcing them into mistakes. The offense is quite respectable, though, averaging 115.5 PPG and ranking 11th in OFFRTG. They’re sixth in FG% (46.9%) and ninth in 3P% (37.0%), also sitting top-eight in assists and turnovers.
Of course, Cade Cunningham is the engine that powers the Pistons with 25.0 points, 7.9 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game – he’s coming off an outstanding 52-point, 11-dime performance in Detroit’s most recent win. A smattering of role players provide crucial support behind him. Duncan Robinson is having a career-best start with 18.1 PPG on a 43.7% 3P%, while Daniss Jenkins is pitching in 13.5 points and 4.3 assists. Paul Reed and John Collins have held down the frontcourt in Duren’s absence, while Ausar Thompson also brings 10.1 points and a team-best 8.7 rebounds with elite defense.
The Heat pushed their chips in by trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo over the offseason, and while the new-look roster has started slow, they’ve finally reached the .500 mark as of last night. They’re 6-6 overall but have won three straight games. Miami comes in at 19th in NETRTG at -2.8, but perhaps the club is beginning to find its stride given the recent momentum.
This Heat unit is third in pace, which has them seventh in PPG with 117.2. However, the offense still ranks 16th in OFFRTG, even despite some positives – they’re 11th in FG% (46.7%) and second in assists per game (29.4) with the ninth-fewest turnovers (14.4). The three-point shooting is something of a weakness at just 33.7%, though. The defense is the bigger issue, however. Miami allows 120.1 PPG, fifth-most, and that’s not just inflated by the pace – the team is just 23rd in DEFRTG. Despite the star frontcourt, the unit is only 22nd in rebounds per game with 42.3. Beyond that, the Heat are 27th in opponent FG% (48.8%) and 29th in opponent 3P% (39.3%).
Seeing as they’re coming off the first leg of a back-to-back, the team is yet to release an injury report as of the time this article was written, so be sure to check on that once it releases. Antetokounmpo played through a wrist sprain last night and is averaging 28.5 points with 12.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. Fellow big man Bam Adebayo is second on the team in scoring and rebounding with 19.4 points and 8.8 boards, but Davion Mitchell has also taken a leap with 16.9 points and an NBA-best 9.2 assists. Klay Thompson and Pelle Larsson were both questionable to play last night but didn’t suit up, so the double-digit scorers’ statuses are ones to monitor.
Pistons vs. Heat pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pistons as a 4.5-point favorite on the road tonight with -203 odds on the Moneyline. The Heat are a +169 underdog to win outright at home with the total set at 228.5 combined points.
It’s a bit tough to project just how this game will go before we have an injury report from Miami, however, this feels like a spot in which Detroit can still cover. The Heat may have some slightly tired legs after last night, but the bigger issue for them is their weakness at defending the three – and defending in general. They’ll try and push the pace, but their opponent is comfortable slowing the tempo down and has the defensive strength to drag this matchup to a virtual halt. The Pistons are also sixth in opponent 2P% allowed at 51.2%, so when it comes to the way Miami wants to attack with Antetokounmpo and Adebayo in the paint, those big men are at something of a disadvantage… at least to an extent. So long as the Detroit defense can hold its own in the paint and shooters like Robinson and Jenkins can take advantage of Miami’s weak perimeter defense, this is a spot in which the Pistons can show why they’re likely the better team. They’re also 7-4 ATS this season and 7-2 ATS as a favorite, with the Heat just 1-3 ATS as an underdog, too.
