DeSean Bishop has rushed for 369 yards and six touchdowns in fourth quarters this season. By the time a defense has endured three periods of Tennessee’s run game, the senior is still finding somewhere to go. Texas A&M’s best chance Saturday involves interrupting that process early, before Bishop can turn another narrow game into an afternoon of increasingly unpleasant tackling. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Texas A&M Aggies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Tennessee vs. A&M prediction, preview
Tennessee enters Kyle Field with a 45.6% offensive success rate, while A&M has held opponents to 37.3%. Those season-long, unadjusted rates describe a legitimate confrontation up front. The Aggies have made red-zone touchdowns difficult to earn. Field goals would keep Tennessee within reach of an offense that has needed every available opportunity lately.
Nic Moore’s absence complicates the visitors’ blocking. Moore shifted from center to left guard after Wendell Moe’s season-ending injury; veteran Sham Umarov is a possible replacement. Tennessee already had to reorganize its quarterback work after Faizon Brandon hurt his shoulder. George MacIntyre has handled the larger role, with Brandon returning for situational work against Kentucky. His 29-yard quarterback sweep and a scoring jet pass to Mike Matthews broadened what Josh Heupel could ask of the backfield. A&M must account for that movement while handling Bishop between the tackles.
The matchup turns more decisively when Marcel Reed takes the field. A&M ranks 120th in opponent-adjusted passing EPA, facing a Tennessee pass defense ranked fifth by the same measure. Reed’s eight touchdown passes have come with eight interceptions. Mario Craver’s questionable designation adds uncertainty to a receiving group already missing Terry Bussey. Sustaining drives through the air looks particularly difficult once Tennessee can anticipate the throw.
Arion Carter arrives after 13 tackles, four tackles for loss and two sacks against Kentucky. The Volunteers create havoc on 22.4% of snaps and allow a 38.2% success rate. Carter’s ability to wreck a series matters against a quarterback whose offense has repeatedly stalled after crossing midfield. Tennessee’s aggression can turn a promising A&M possession into another appearance by David Olano, who has made 16 of 17 field goals.
A&M vs. Tennessee pick, best bet
Rueben Owens offers the Aggies their strongest counter. He rushed for 137 yards at South Carolina, and A&M generated enough offense there to make its nine-point finish especially aggravating. A productive ground game could protect Reed from Tennessee’s rush and preserve the usefulness of that red-zone defense. I expect it to support a couple of scoring drives here, particularly with Tennessee adjusting its personnel.
The Vols can survive some awkward possessions of their own. Bishop’s late-game work, Brandon’s supplementary package and the defense’s disruption provide several ways to secure the handful of decisive plays this small spread requires. I’m backing Tennessee by a touchdown.
Best bet: Tennessee -1.5 (+102)
Projected score: Tennessee 24, Texas A&M 17.
Best Bet: Tennessee -1.5 (+100) vs. Texas A&M
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