Best Stefon Diggs Prop Bet for Commanders vs. Giants on Thursday 11/12/26

Last season, the Philadelphia Eagles became the first team since the 2001-4 Eagles to win the AFC East in consecutive campaigns, but that streak looks likely to end in 2026, as Philadelphia has the worst record in the NFC and is without starting quarterback Jalen Hurts for the season.

Instead, the New York Giants, at 5-2-1, are the division’s lone representative in the playoff picture. New York will host the 2-5-1 Washington Commanders tonight on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Washington is a 2.5-point underdog for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook (+114 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 40.5. The Giants are -135 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around the Commanders’ WR1, Stefon Diggs.

Best Stefon Diggs Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook

Stefon Diggs U38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Although Diggs has recorded at least 39 receiving yards in four of his seven games this season, I’m somewhat pessimistic about his potential for output tonight. Washington lost star wideout Terry McLaurin to a torn patellar tendon in Week 6, which could’ve opened up more opportunities for Diggs, but his snap shares weren’t notably higher in Weeks 8 or 9. While he averaged 7.6 targets per game while playing alongside McLaurin, he garnered six in Week 8 and five in Week 9. The four-time Pro Bowler just isn’t a surefire option anymore at this point in his career, as he’s posted a lower offense grade at Pro Football Focus than either Antonio Williams or Treylon Burks.

In general, Washington has a very egalitarian offense. Diggs leads the team with 303 receiving yards, but Williams (284), Chig Okonkwo (239), Burks (233), and McLaurin (230) aren’t far behind. In last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams, each of Van Jefferson, Okonkwo, Diggs, and Williams had at least five targets, and the week before that, each of Burks, Williams, Diggs, and Okonkwo garnered at least four. The Commanders have lots of mouths to feed even before considering the running game, which has been largely shared between Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler in recent weeks. Plus, rain is expected to continue falling throughout the game, which could incentivize David Blough to keep the ball on the ground.

The Giants have also been pretty good against opposing wide receivers. In fact, New York has conceded the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position, allowing the ninth-lowest completion percentage and second-fewest yards per attempt overall. Plus, the Giants operate a fairly blitz-heavy offensive scheme, and Daniels has recorded just the 29th-highest passing grade in such situations. None of cornerbacks Deonte Banks and Greg Newsome II and safety Jevon Holland has allowed higher than an 83.5 passer rating in coverage, and rookie star Arvell Reese is seemingly getting better by the game. Diggs could be in for a long afternoon.