Louisiana running back JJ Garner needed one kickoff to put South Alabama behind, racing 100 yards for a touchdown before later ripping off a 65-yard scoring run. The Cajuns still escaped 28–26. Quarterback Lunch Winfield threw a pick-six, South Alabama quarterback Bishop Davenport broke loose for a 45-yard rushing touchdown, and Louisiana again made a productive rushing performance far more precarious than it needed to be. Now they arrive in Monroe for the Battle of the Bayou. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the ULM Warhawks and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
ULM vs. Louisiana prediction, preview
ULM quarterback Austin Carlisle can test that same tackling Thursday in Monroe. He carried 19 times for 111 yards in the Warhawks’ 19–17 win at Arkansas State, sharing the offense with Aidan Armenta, who ran for two touchdowns but threw two interceptions. Louisiana has conceded 4.9 yards per carry in conference play. The Cajuns have to account for Carlisle before charging after Armenta; ULM can punish a defense that treats either quarterback as an incidental runner.
The Warhawks earned their touchdown drives at Arkansas State, traveling 79 and 75 yards, but they needed exceptional conversion work to reach 19 points. ULM converted nine of 14 third downs and both fourth downs while rushing for 268 yards. Arkansas State has allowed a generous 5.6 yards per carry in league games. Against Louisiana, I expect Carlisle to extend possessions without reproducing that whole performance. ULM has finished just 16 of 27 red-zone visits with touchdowns and converted a paltry 34.65% of third downs this season.
Winfield and Garner should give Louisiana the more reliable ground game. They combined for 233 rushing yards against South Alabama, with Winfield adding 147 through the air. The Cajuns also marched through an 11-play possession that consumed 6:20 late, although they missed the field goal. With running back Anthony Reagan out for the season, Louisiana needs Garner to shoulder more of the work alongside its quarterback.
Louisiana vs. ULM pick, best bet
ULM has defended better than its season averages suggest. The Warhawks and Cajuns have faced the same five conference opponents; ULM allowed 4.6 yards per carry against them, compared with Louisiana’s 4.9. Louisiana’s offense has been much stronger in that shared sample, however, averaging 5.2 yards per rush to ULM’s 3.8. I expect the Cajuns to move the ball, and their superb red-zone finishing makes them dangerous to an under (23 touchdowns on 31 visits). Winfield could also exploit a secondary with ULM defensive backs Korian Wilson, RJ Hall and Taijh Overton reported out.
I’m accepting that threat because ULM has repeatedly struggled to turn possession into touchdowns, even when its running game flourishes. Louisiana scored 21 offensive points against South Alabama alongside Garner’s return touchdown; the Cajuns can run effectively while this game finishes in the mid-40s. At 47.5, I’m taking a narrower under than the earlier 48.5 offered, expecting the Warhawks to leave too many promising drives unfinished.
Best bet: Under 47.5 (-105)
Projected score: Louisiana 28, ULM 17
Best Bet: ULM vs. Louisiana u47.5 total points scored (-105)
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
