Commanders vs. Giants NFL Player Prop Bets and Picks for Thursday Night Football

The NFL Week 10 slate kicks off with a primetime NFC East matchup between the Washington Commanders and the New York Giants in the Thursday Night Football battle.

Despite losing Jaxson Dart for the season, there is a renewed spark in the Giants’ offense with J.J. McCarthy at the helm. New York currently leads the NFC East with a 5-2-1 record. Washington has taken a major step back and slipped to 2-5-1, with the tie coming against these same Giants in the first matchup. Jayden Daniels has battled injuries of his own, but there is plenty to be frustrated with regarding Washington’s results this season.

Looking at the odds for the Thursday Night matchup, the Giants enter as 2.5-point home favorites with -142 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Commanders are +120 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 40.5 points.

There are plenty of ways to get involved beyond betting on one side. For now, let’s look at my top three player props for the Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup.

Commanders at Giants NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football

Antonio Williams Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The season-ending injury to Terry McLaurin shook up the hierarchy of the Commanders’ passing attack in a notable way. While Stefon Diggs still headlines the production, Antonio Williams has emerged as a key part of the passing game. The rookie pass catcher has pulled in 26 receptions on 39 targets for 284 receiving yards and a touchdown through his first eight games. Williams is averaging 35.5 receiving yards per game, but has surpassed 38.5 yards in three games this season, including two of the past three weeks.

The uptick in recent volume is notable. Williams has been targeted at least three times in every game and has recorded at least two receptions in each. He has also hauled in eight receptions on 13 targets across the past two games alone. The Clemson product played 83% and 84% of the offensive snaps in those contests, well above his previous season high of 68.8%.

Williams was limited to 25 receiving yards in his most recent game, but had 54 yards against the Eagles and 50 yards against the 49ers before that. New York has a respectable passing defense that currently ranks third in the league in passing yards allowed. Still, Williams offers an intriguing combination of big-play ability and an increasingly consistent role in the offense. Jayden Daniels’ trust in Williams has continued to grow, and this increased involvement could carry over into this matchup.

Williams caught all three of his targets for 31 yards in the first meeting with the Giants, although McLaurin was still on the field for that game. Expect the recent increase in opportunities to translate into production and for the 38.5 receiving-yard prop line to be too low given the context of this matchup.

Jayden Daniels Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

While he will carry the bulk of his responsibilities through the air, Jayden Daniels’ ability as a runner is part of what makes him so special. The LSU product averaged 52.4 rushing yards per game as a rookie and is recording 42.0 rushing yards per game this season. Daniels has been a bit hesitant to lean on his legs of late, with just 10 total rushing attempts over the past three weeks after recording 21 carries during his first three matchups.

However, the Week 5 game against this same Giants team was where Daniels had his most success. He recorded nine carries for 103 rushing yards and two touchdowns. New York’s pass rush has struggled to generate pressure consistently, which could give Daniels opportunities to survey the field, allow the secondary to get downfield, and then take off through open running lanes for chunk gains.

Daniels has cleared his rushing prop total in three of his four career matchups with the Giants, including his 103-yard performance in the first meeting this season. Washington’s outlook this year is bleak, but the Commanders still have a puncher’s chance at the postseason, and a victory this week would be a major step toward keeping that door open.

The Commanders’ star has a rushing attempts line of 5.5 for this matchup, with the over favored at -146 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Daniels rushed for 103 yards in the first meeting, and while he did not break off a run longer than 38 yards, his overall production showed the upside he brings as a runner. Expect him to see enough opportunities to clear this total once again.

Isaiah Likely Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Isaiah Likely followed John Harbaugh from the Ravens to the Giants this offseason and has been rewarded with the most productive season of his career. The 26-year-old has pulled in 46 receptions on 66 targets for 448 receiving yards and six touchdowns through his first eight games. Likely is averaging 56.0 receiving yards per game and has established himself as a key safety blanket in the Giants’ passing attack.

This is a favorable matchup for him to continue his strong stretch of production. Washington has a vulnerable pass defense that ranks 30th in total passing yards allowed and 28th in passing touchdowns conceded. The Commanders have been especially vulnerable to opposing tight ends, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards to the position at 68.8 per game.

Likely pulled in a season-high 11 receptions on 13 targets for 94 receiving yards and two touchdowns during the first matchup with the Commanders. He offers an intriguing blend of talent and athleticism, with the ability to move like a wide receiver and create serious matchup problems for opposing defenses. Washington will have its hands full trying to contain him again.

Likely has surpassed 47.5 receiving yards in five of his eight games this season. Expect him to find success against this Commanders team once again. Some alternate lines, such as +157 odds to record 60 or more receiving yards on DraftKings Sportsbook, could also be worth considering.