The Detroit Red Wings visit the Florida Panthers on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Amerant Bank Arena. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Florida is a -170 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 5.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Panthers vs. Red Wings prediction and best bet.
Panthers vs. Red Wings Odds
| Market | Detroit Red Wings | Florida Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +142 | -170 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-185) | -1.5 (+154) |
| Total | Over 5.5 (-135) | Under 5.5 (+114) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Panthers vs. Red Wings Betting Preview
Florida Panthers Outlook
Florida has spent most of the season without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, both on injured reserve with knee injuries, and the even-strength offense has started to feel their absences. Over the past 10 games, the Panthers rank 31st in 5v5 goals per 60 (1.61) and 25th in 5v5 xGoals share (46.8%), quite a big drop from a team that still owns a 54.5% Corsi% on the season, tied for third in the NHL.
Florida has stayed afloat on the power play, scoring 20 goals on 21.87 xGoals at 5-on-4 and generating 10.21 xGoals per 60 with the man advantage, and the unit ranks 10th by percentage (24.4%). Matthew Tkachuk (4G, 23A) leads the team with 27 points, Seth Jones (3G, 18A) has been a steady source of offense from the blue line, and Brady Tkachuk (10G, 10A) is tied for the team lead in goals. Akira Schmid will start in net, and he has an .886 SV% and 3.00 GAA, with a -0.1 GSAx and -0.01% SV% above expected that both rank 34th among 75 goaltenders. The Panthers sport a 4-2-0 home record, with three of those four wins coming by two goals or more.
Detroit Red Wings Outlook
Dylan Larkin (2G, 4A) hasn’t suited up since Oct. 26 and was suspended without pay after deciding he would no longer play for the team, and Detroit has gone a poor 2-5-0 since then. It has lost four straight games, scoring just five goals across those four outings.
Over the past 10 games, the Red Wings have still controlled 52.4% of the 5v5 xGoals (eighth) and allowed just 2.19 5v5 xGoals against per 60 (T-5th), despite their 2.68 goals per 60 in that span ranking 26th. Lucas Raymond (6G, 12A), Alex DeBrincat (7G, 9A) and Viktor Arvidsson (8G, 7A) are carrying the production. The penalty kill has been ugly, too, as Detroit has allowed 17 goals at 4-on-5 on 13.43 xGoals, giving up 8.51 xGoals against per 60 while shorthanded. Detroit hasn’t named a starter yet, but Daniil Tarasov will likely get the nod after starting three straight before John Gibson returned from injury on Tuesday. Tarasov owns a .919 SV% and 2.10 GAA, along with a +6.5 GSAx (ninth) and +1.55% SV% above expected (eighth). If Gibson goes instead, his -5.7 GSAx ranks 69th.
Panthers vs. Red Wings Prediction and Best Bet
Detroit won the most recent meeting 5-3 on Nov. 2, but that was also the last time it had even won a game. Tarasov made 23 saves on 26 shots that night, Florida didn’t score on the power play, and Detroit’s fifth goal was an empty-netter. I’m not laying -170 on a Panthers team that has struggled at 5v5 lately, but Detroit’s offense has gone very quiet without Larkin, and Florida’s power play faces one of the leakiest penalty kills in the NHL. Six of the Panthers’ 10 wins have come by two goals or more, and if Florida gets its chances on the man advantage, this one could get away from the Red Wings quickly.
Best Bet: Panthers Puck Line -1.5 (+154)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
