We’re into the home stretch of the college football season with Week 11 approaching. The College Football Playoff picture is taking form, but a lot of key results are still ahead of us, including some determining games in Week 11. I’m posting three plays for the week here on Wednesday, and will update the best bets cheat sheet article with any additional plays or information as the week goes on.
Let’s breakdown the best bets below.
Florida at Kentucky (Saturday – 6:15pm ET)
After their 4-0 start following a win over Ole Miss, the Gators were the talk of college football. The College Football Playoff was in sight, and Florida football was back. It appears we jumped the gun there. The Gators are 1-4 since, and a comeback in Austin away from 0-5. Not to take an impressive road win at Texas away from this team, but the four losses have been bad, and they trailed by double digits in the win.
The losses came at Missouri, vs. South Carolina, to Georgia in Atlanta and vs. Oklahoma. All of them were by 16 or more points, losing by an average of 20.5 per game. This prolific offense to begin the season has come to a screeching halt. While Georgia and Oklahoma are a couple of the best defenses in the country, Florida couldn’t even manage to score double digits in either of the last two games, scoring 15 total points combined.
Now the Gators head to Lexington for a massive road game. Kentucky is still hanging onto a CFP spot, dropping from No. 6 to No. 11 after its road loss to Tennessee. The Wildcats were in the game the entire way, but lost the fourth quarter 21-0 for things to come undone. I’m looking for a big bounce-back at home in a crucial night game.
Kentucky’s only home loss came to Alabama, in a game it led at halftime. Bama sits No. 3 in the CFP right now, so the loss is explainable. Since then, the Wildcats have four outright wins in the SEC as the underdog, including a Saturday night thriller over LSU. I expect this to be a similar atmosphere that Kentucky thrives in against the limping Gators.
If -3 flat is not available when you tail, you can split a bet on -2.5 and -3.5 on DraftKings to get a similar price on laying the field goal.
CFB Best Bet: Kentucky -3 (-120)
Minnesota at Penn State (Saturday – 7pm ET)
I’m going to be opposite the money in this game, but I believe the price is off. Penn State began Big Ten play going 0-4, which had the Nittany Lions on a 3-10 skid in the conference, dating back to last season. Credit to them, they’ve come back around a bit, winning two in a row over Purdue and Washington.
However, the win over Purdue by 14 points is the only Power 4 team that Penn State has beat with any margin. Last week in Seattle appeared to be much more of blunder by the Huskies to start the game than anything else. Penn State took a 28-3 lead in the first half, with multiple breakdowns by Washington’s defense to allow long touchdowns. Shutting down any of those explosive plays would’ve flipped the game.
Washington closed the game on a 22-0 run, but Penn State drained the clock late to win by a field goal, despite getting shutout in the second half. PSU doesn’t have much momentum after the win, given the way it stalled late. The Nittany Lions also return home off a long travel spot to the west coast.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has been a tough out this season. The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS as the underdog in conference games, with three outright wins. One of those wins was also at Washington, along with victories over Iowa and Michigan. They nearly defeated Indiana in a wild one, but easily covered. Minnesota was tied in the second half with undefeated UCLA last week, but a couple of big plays late broke the game open.
Now this tough defense goes on the road to face a Penn State team that I’m not sold has turned the season around. Minnesota is dealing with a couple of injuries to the defensive line, so the roster isn’t completely healthy. But this also isn’t enough to move this spread from +7 out to approaching double digits.
I think the Gophers are live to win this game. I felt buying a point here was priced pretty cheap in this one, and grabbed the +10.5 ALT. If you don’t want to pay the extra juice, I think +9.5 is a strong play, and may even consider taking a bit of moneyline.
CFB Best Bet: Minnesota +10.5 (-130)
Texas at LSU (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
I trusted LSU last week and the Tigers completely botched their opportunity to knock off Alabama. LSU out-gained Bama by nearly 200 yards, but got blown out on the scoreboard. Several drives stalled in Bama territory, leaving the Tigers with nothing to show for it. The Tide consistently capitalized. Not Lane Kiffin’s best work.
I don’t completely trust this LSU team. It’s very inconsistent, but also very talented. Much like the Texas team coming to Baton Rouge on Saturday night. That said, I anticipate LSU to clean up some mistakes and be focused on capitalizing against the Longhorns. This should be a terrific home field advantage for LSU, and a tough environment for Texas.
Texas has only played two road games this season, and both of them were dicey. It squeaked by Tennessee by three points in September, failing to cover the spread. The Longhorns played their second road game of the season last week against Missouri, and the 14-point win is misleading.
Mizzou led 20-13 in the second half, then a ton of flukey plays ensued, and a ton of luck went Texas’ way. Arch Manning had what appeared to be a drive ending incompletion, but it was called a fumble that the Longhorns picked up for a first down. Missouri was driving to tie the game, but had a ball bounce away from a receiver for a turnover. Per Pick Six Previews, there were five video reviews in the game, all of which went in Texas’ favor.
The Longhorns are due to come up short in one of these road games, and this spot has all the makings. A night game against LSU is by far the toughest road test yet. I expect Manning and Texas to get a bit rattled here, and forced into some mistakes. The Tigers should be sharp off the embarrassing loss, looking to clean up their mistakes and somehow finish the season 9-3 with an outside chance to sneak into the CFP.
CFB Best Bet: LSU -3.5 (-115)
