The Colorado Avalanche visit the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Canadian Tire Centre. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Colorado is a -120 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Senators vs. Avalanche prediction and best bet.
Senators vs. Avalanche Odds
| Market | Colorado Avalanche | Ottawa Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | +100 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+210) | +1.5 (-258) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-102) | Under 6.5 (-118) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Senators vs. Avalanche Betting Preview
Ottawa Senators Outlook
The Senators have spent the past three weeks simply waiting on Linus Ullmark’s return. Ottawa went 7-1-0 in Ullmark’s eight starts before injury, but it has gone 4-3-2 since his last start on Oct. 21. Over the past 10 games, though, the Senators have controlled 56.5% of the 5v5 xGoals (third) and posted a 54.9% 5v5 Corsi% (second). It’s just always been the goaltending, as they’ve allowed 3.37 goals per 60 in that span against just 2.98 xGoals against per 60, which ranks ninth-best.
Tim Stutzle (9G, 14A) leads the team with 23 points, and Drake Batherson (9G, 9A) is tied with him for the team lead in goals, with both of them scoring at a better clip than their roughly six xGoals apiece. Ullmark (lower body) is the likely starter tonight. He was activated from injured reserve on Sunday, and head coach Travis Green said the staff considered starting him Tuesday before opting to give him a couple of extra days of rest, so Samuel Ersson took the 3-2 overtime loss to Washington instead. When healthy, Ullmark has been elite, posting a .945 SV% and 1.33 GAA in those eight starts, and his +8.3 GSAx and +1.94% SV% above expected rank sixth and first, respectively, among 75 goaltenders. The Senators are 6-2-1 at home, too.
Colorado Avalanche Outlook
Colorado’s offense has been on fire, plain and simple. The Avalanche lead the NHL in goals per 60 (4.08) and 5v5 goals per 60 (3.81), but their 2.71 5v5 xGoals per 60 rank only eighth. Over the past 10 games, their 5v5 xGoals share has fallen to 50.5%, which ranks 16th in the NHL.
Artturi Lehkonen (13G, 5A) leads the team in goals on just 7.47 xGoals, and Martin Necas (10G, 14A) has 10 goals on 5.98 xGoals, so the finishing has been there. Nathan MacKinnon (10G, 20A) has been the engine, per usual, with a team-high 30 points. Colorado has won two straight games, including a 6-3 win over Toronto on Tuesday, but it is just 4-5-0 on the road compared to 7-1-2 at home. Mackenzie Blackwood will likely get the start after posting a shutout against Detroit on Saturday, and he’s 10-3-1 with a .901 SV% and 2.63 GAA. His +0.6 GSAx and +0.08% SV% above expected don’t look nearly as good, ranking 30th and 31st, respectively.
Senators vs. Avalanche Prediction and Best Bet
Ottawa has been the better 5v5 team over the past 10 games and has mostly been missing a goaltender to match. With Ullmark likely back, the edge in the crease swings hard toward the Senators, from Blackwood’s 30th-ranked GSAx to Ullmark’s sixth. The public is all over Colorado, of course, with 80% of the bets and 88% of the Moneyline handle, but I’m happy to take the other side at even money. I would just ensure that Ullmark is confirmed before puck drop. If he’s between the pipes, the Senators are the move.
Best Bet: Senators Moneyline (+100)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
