The Washington Capitals visit the New Jersey Devils on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Prudential Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New Jersey is a -155 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Devils vs. Capitals prediction and best bet.
Devils vs. Capitals Odds
| Market | Washington Capitals | New Jersey Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +130 | -155 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Devils vs. Capitals Betting Preview
New Jersey Devils Outlook
The Devils had their five-game winning streak snapped in Winnipeg on Tuesday, but they’ve been a different team at Prudential Center, going 8-2-0 on home ice. They simply bury their opponents in shot volume, averaging 33.0 shots per game (second) while allowing just 24.8 (third-fewest), and their 58.0% xGoals share ranks second in the NHL.
Special teams play has been the issue, as New Jersey generates 8.65 xGoals per 60 on the 5-on-4, yet it has turned 14.82 power-play xGoals into just 10 goals, which is why the unit ranks 26th (18.0%). Nico Hischier (8G, 5A) leads the team with five power-play goals, while Jack Hughes (9G, 17A) and Jesper Bratt (4G, 15A) drive the rest of the offensive attack. The penalty kill is even uglier, ranking 29th (65.9%), as it has allowed 13 goals on 7.82 xGoals while shorthanded. Connor Hellebuyck will likely get the start after shutting out Toronto on Sunday, and he’s 5-0-0 with a .913 SV% and 1.96 GAA, though his +0.8 GSAx and +0.34% SV% above expected rank 29th and 24th, respectively, among 75 goaltenders.
Washington Capitals Outlook
Washington operates differently from New Jersey, ranking 25th in Corsi% (47.7%) and averaging 27.1 shots per game, but the looks it does generate are dangerous. The Capitals’ 53.4% 5v5 xGoals share ranks fifth, and they’ve won seven of their past 10 games, including a 3-2 overtime win over Ottawa on Tuesday night.
Dylan Strome (3G, 12A) leads the team in points, and Alex Tuch (11G, 2A) has led the way in terms of finishing. Jakob Chychrun (2G, 10A) has been productive from the blue line, too. Washington’s primary weakness is its penalty kill. It sits in the middle of the pack by percentage (77.8%), but it has allowed 8.96 xGoals against per 60 at 4-on-5 and has only given up nine goals on 13.12 xGoals thanks to some timely saves. Logan Thompson is the likely starter after making 25 saves in that Tuesday win over the Senators, and he sports an .891 SV% and 3.09 GAA, along with a +2.3 GSAx (19th) and +0.33% SV% above expected (25th).
Devils vs. Capitals Prediction and Best Bet
Washington won the first meeting 4-2 on Oct. 17, but that game was in D.C., and New Jersey scored seven times at home last April. The public is split, with 89% of the Moneyline bets on New Jersey but 66% of the handle on Washington, and I’m not eager enough to lay -155 or take a flier on the Capitals at +130. The better angle is to just target the Devils’ offense: they’ve scored at least four goals in six of their 10 home games, and a power play generating chances at such a high rate is due to start finishing against a penalty kill that bleeds xGoals. I’ll take New Jersey to get to four goals.
Best Bet: Devils Team Total Over 3.5 (+115)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
