These are my picks to win every Week 10 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Straight-Up Picks with Confidence Levels
High Confidence
Rams over Cardinals
The Rams’ defense has started to look like the unit we thought it would be over the past two weeks. They have given up just 22 points over their last two games, and Myles Garrett was a force in his return to the field. That is a very scary prospect for Carson Beck as he prepares to make his first career NFL start. The Rams should handle business against the rookie quarterback and keep the winning streak going.
Jaguars over Titans
The Jaguars are in the midst of a very easy stretch of their schedule and have been taking full advantage of it. They have blown out two opponents in a row and should keep their winning streak rolling against Tennessee. The Titans are starting to play better, but the Jaguars are double-digit favorites in this game for a reason. The defense is playing fantastic, and Trevor Lawrence is running this offense like a well-oiled machine.
Bills over Jets
The Jets have no idea how to win football games. They might not be one of the worst teams in the NFL talent-wise, but their record reflects that’s exactly what they are. In a league in which you are what your record says you are, the 7-1 Bills are the best team in the AFC. While these road divisional matchups can be tricky, Josh Allen should make the winning plays against a poorly coached Jets team.
Ravens over Chargers
The Ravens are getting a much-needed boost with the arrival of Jacoby Brissett this week. Brissett has shown he is more than capable of managing a game when he has good weapons to work with, and even has the upside to be an above-average NFL quarterback. He should be able to get the ball to Zay Flowers and provide enough of a downfield passing threat to open things up for Derrick Henry. It makes matters even better that they are facing the winless Chargers in Brissett’s first start. Brissett has already beaten the Chargers once this season and should do it again with a second team.
Seahawks over Raiders
The Seahawks’ defense is playing at an incredible level this season, ranking second in defensive success rate. Having to face that elite unit in your first NFL start is a daunting prospect for Fernando Mendoza. Seattle should make life really hard on Mendoza and force him into mistakes. Drew Lock can manage that offense well enough to get this road win.
Medium Confidence
Packers over Vikings
The Vikings have brought in Kirk Cousins to help fix their quarterback issues. While Jacoby Brissett gets a home game against the Chargers in his first start with the Ravens, Kirk Cousins gets a road start in Green Bay to start this second phase of his Vikings career. That is a tough task for Cousins as he looks to get back into the swing of the Kevin O’Connell offense. Green Bay wants revenge after blowing a big halftime lead to the Vikings on the road in Week 1. The Green Bay offense is on fire at the moment, and they should outduel the Vikings.
Texans over Browns
The Texans’ defense should give Deshaun Watson a really tough time in his return to the field. Watson’s former team will want to send a message in this game and get a winning streak going. The Texans were in desperation mode after starting the season 2-5, and finally got a win last week to improve to 3-5. They are a longshot to make the playoffs, but have a manageable second-half schedule, so it’s definitely possible if they can perform. The Houston defense should dominate in this game and C.J. Stroud should keep playing well enough to win this game.
Chiefs over Falcons
The Chiefs bounced back with a nice win last week after dropping back-to-back games. The Chiefs have only lost to the Seahawks and Broncos this season, making it seem as if elite defenses are the only thing that can slow them down. While Atlanta has some nice pieces on defense, they likely won’t be able to stop Patrick Mahomes. The Falcons’ offense is in a bad way at the moment and this team is plummeting in the wrong direction. This should be a tight Chiefs win.
49ers over Cowboys
This game should be one of the most fun watches of the week from a neutral perspective. These are two of the NFL’s best offenses facing off on a fast track. The Cowboys’ defense should struggle to get stops, and the 49ers’ defense has shown signs of struggling when games get too fast-paced this season. However, ultimately, the San Francisco defense should be the side to come up with a stop or two to win this game.
Coin-Flip Games
Lions over Patriots
The Lions and the Patriots are facing off in Munich this week. The European travel definitely impacts this game in a major way. The team that travels better could end up getting the win. We often see strange results in these international games, so it’s hard to have too much confidence in either side. However, Detroit is the team in much better form. The Lions have won four straight games after starting the season 2-2. The offense is one of the best in the league, but the defense has been the surprising part of this run. The Lions are allowing just 15.5 points per game over their winning streak. They should outduel the Patriots in Germany.
Colts over Dolphins
The Colts have been a disaster this season. They are in the midst of a five-game losing streak and have sold off some of their best players over the past two weeks. However, they are actually favored to win a game this week. That is because the 1-7 Dolphins are going to be giving Kyle McCord his first career start with Malik Willis injured. Both of these teams are a disaster, but Jonathan Taylor might be able to will his team to a win at home against McCord.
Bengals over Steelers
The Bengals are on a roll at the moment. Their offense has been the second-best in the NFL in EPA/play and success rate this season. Joe Burrow is firing on all cylinders, and the Chase/Higgins receiver duo has been the best in the league. However, the Steelers are also playing well. They are on a four-game winning streak and coming off a bye week. That makes this game a true coin flip between two very familiar divisional opponents. I am picking the Bengals purely because they get this game at home, but don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh pulls off the upset.
Panthers over Saints
The Panthers and Saints are both struggling, but this is a massive game in the wide-open NFC South. With all four teams really struggling, these head-to-head divisional matchups could very well be what determines the NFC South winner. I will give a slight edge to the Panthers on the road in this game. Both defenses have been quite poor this season, but the Panthers’ offense has looked more competent, ranking 13th in EPA/play.
Commanders over Giants
The Thursday Night Football battle between NFC rivals is the hardest game to pick this week. The only game the Giants have won by more than one score this season came on a 98-yard pick-six to close the game, when it looked like the Cardinals might punch it in and win. John Harbaugh has shown his value by winning a lot of close games, but things are bound to bounce in a different direction for New York at some point. These teams famously tied after the Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn meltdown in the first matchup. Washington should get that play right this time and win a tight one in primetime.
