Week 9 means that we’re officially at the halfway mark of the NFL regular season. The playoff race is taking shape as the trade deadline nears next week, so expect a flurry of action in the coming days. The Indianapolis Colts are already in a fire sale, shipping out two stars last week with the potential to move more pieces on the table. As such, this matchup is a great chance for the Dallas Cowboys to get back in the win column, though their own ability to finish games is certainly in question.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Cowboys vs. Colts in NFL Week 9.
Cowboys vs. Colts prediction, preview
The Cowboys had high expectations coming into the season with a revamped defense and an offense that returned essentially the entire core of last year’s elite unit. Thus far, neither side has performed up to par on a consistent basis. Dallas is 3-5-0 and is coming off a near-unimaginable loss, having blown a huge second-half lead to the Cardinals last week. The good news is that the offense still averages 27.4 PPG and ranks seventh in EPA/play, posting 30+ points in five of their eight games. However, they’re not creating big plays like in the past and are 29th in explosive play rate at just 7.7%. This matchup isn’t a particularly threatening one, so Dak Prescott should be able to get plenty going through the air to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (questionable; hamstring) – the latter of whom seems like the squeaky wheel that’ll get greased, especially since Jerry Jones said he would like to see the WR get more looks. Javonte Williams could also be in for a big week (more on that shortly), but this defense will also need to show up. Dallas gives up 26.6 PPG and ranks dead last in EPA/play allowed. After giving up four touchdowns in the second half to an Arizona offense led by Gardner Minshew, the floor is obviously quite low.
The Colts also entered the year with some fairly high expectations, but the wheels quickly fell off the wagon. The team is only 2-6 and is coming off its worst loss of the season, a 42-7 drubbing at the hands of the division-rival Jaguars. A loss was expected after the front office officially punted the campaign by trading DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson, but losing that badly still stings. The story hovering over Indianapolis this weekend is whether superstar Jonathan Taylor will be traded by Tuesday’s deadline, which means he could see a lesser workload to keep him healthy – he handled just eight rush attempts in last week’s blowout. Even on a reduced snap share, he could certainly pop off and expose this Dallas defense. However, Indy averages only 20.1 PPG and falls 29th in EPA/play, ranking 31st in EPA/pass behind a rough return for Daniel Jones from last season’s Achilles tear. The quarterback also finds himself in trade discussions per reporting from Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport on Saturday morning, but it does sound like he’s still slated to start and throw passes to Josh Downs and Tyler Warren – with the former also having requested a trade. Are you noting a theme?
In any case, the Colts’ defense doesn’t provide any reason for hope. The unit is giving up 27.8 PPG, though a ranking at No. 23 in EPA/play allowed is slightly more encouraging. The run defense is particularly vulnerable, however, as they sit dead last in EPA/rush allowed. That’s something the Cowboys will absolutely key in on this week.
Cowboys vs. Colts pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Cowboys were a -4.5 favorite on the road with -218 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Colts were a +180 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 51.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This is a battle between perhaps the two worst defenses in the NFL, depending on the metrics you look at. The outlook for points is quite positive, but the amount of work Taylor will handle does loom large. Indianapolis will surely want to keep the star halfback healthy ahead of next week’s deadline since he seems to be the hottest trade chip on the market. Seth McGowan could see a real audition in this game, so that’ll be a fun story to track if he sees more chances.
The over could certainly cash given the lack of defensive talent, and it should be noted that the injury report is extensive for Dallas here on that side of the ball. DT Jonathan Bullard wasn’t activated from IR this week and is out alongside OLB Malachi Lawrence, who landed on IR himself. Additionally, LB DeMarvion Overshown and CB Joey Porter Jr. are both questionable. With those injuries coming in the wake of last week’s late collapse, I’m unwilling to trust this team to hold up their end of the bargain and cover the spread.
Instead of picking a game line, I’m instead targeting Javonte Williams to lead the contest in rushing yards. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the situation with Taylor as mentioned earlier and McGowan may not see quite enough work to really challenge for this game leader bet, so the stage is set for Williams to pace all players in production on the ground. The Colts give up 103.4 rushing yards per game to RBs and Williams is one of few bell-cow backs remaining in this league, so against a run defense that’s last in EPA/rush as well, he’s positioned to take the crown.
