Week 9 means that we’re officially at the halfway mark of the NFL regular season. The playoff race is taking shape as the trade deadline nears next week, so expect a flurry of action in the coming days. For the moment, though, another big slate gives us plenty of games to follow – one of the most underrated of the week pits the Denver Broncos against the Carolina Panthers, both of whom are hopefuls to push for the title in their respective divisions.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Broncos vs. Panthers in NFL Week 9.
Broncos vs. Panthers prediction, preview
The Broncos are coming off a standout victory last week as they took down the division-rival Chiefs, capping off their fourth consecutive win and allowing them to take over first place in the AFC West at 6-2. Over the last two weeks, Denver’s struggling offense has shown signs of life with 30 and 28 points, with Bo Nix showing some much-needed flashes after an abysmal first 1/3 of the campaign. The consistency of this attack is still an issue with only 21.5 PPG and the 21st-ranked EPA/play, but perhaps real progress is being made. Rookie RB Jonah Coleman racked up over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown as he seemingly seized the starting job last game, so the hope is that he can provide some additional juice in the backfield. Still, the defense is going to be the key to success for Denver. This unit allows 20.6 PPG, which ranks 11th in the NFL, and falls 13th in EPA/play allowed. The good news is that the Broncos are seventh in EPA/dropback allowed, which should be a boon against a pass-happy Carolina offense that has regressed over the last couple of games.
The Panthers, meanwhile, fell below .500 last week with their second straight loss, bringing them to just 3-4 on the campaign. They started strong out of the Week 5 bye with a 25-14 win over the Eagles, but these last two games saw them lose 43-13 to the Buccaneers and 27-19 to the Packers. After posting 30+ points in three of their first four games, these back-to-back outings below 20 are a concerning development for what looked like one of the NFL’s top offenses through the first few weeks. Carolina is now averaging 25.4 PPG, dropping to 14th in EPA/play and 15th in EPA/dropback. The latter mark may be an issue since the unit still ranks fourth in PROE and has empowered Bryce Young to throw more than ever, but he’s plummeted to 28th in EPA/dropback since the bye after sitting ninth in the same stat over his first four appearances. The Panthers do still have an excellent supporting cast with Chuba Hubbard in the backfield and the WR duo of Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, but they have to perform week in and week out due to their team’s defensive lapses.
A major note for Sunday is that the struggles on that side of the ball got defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero fired last week, so this’ll be the first game with interim Todd Wash at the position. While Carolina does sit 20th in EPA/play allowed, the team is 30th in EPA/rush allowed and 28th in PPG allowed (27.6). Turning this defense around will prove a tall task.
Broncos vs. Panthers pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Broncos were a -3 favorite on the road with -148 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Panthers were a +124 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 44.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The question of what Carolina’s defense looks like in Wash’s debut as the play-caller on that side of the ball is probably the biggest storyline in this matchup. He’s a career defensive line coach but has served as a coordinator before in the past with the Jaguars, so he won’t be totally out of his depth here. However, Denver’s run game sits 12th in EPA/rush and Coleman may present a challenge for the Panthers’ poor front seven after a couple of encouraging weeks from the rookie.
Not only will Carolina have to slow down the run, but the team’s offense will need to get back on track as well. The Panthers’ attack has flowed through the passing game this season and will be tested against a Denver defense that’s largely quite good at limiting aerial damage. After a couple of particularly bad weeks from Young, can he recapture his early momentum here? My gut leans towards no given what we’ve seen from the Panthers on that side of the ball recently, with the quarterback throwing more interceptions over the last two weeks than he had in the five preceding games.
These teams are seemingly trending in opposite directions, so an alt line of Denver -2.5 feels like a pretty safe pick. Defense should be the difference in this game, in which case the Broncos have a strong case to come out on top.
