Week 9 means that we’re officially at the halfway mark of the NFL regular season. The playoff race is taking shape as the trade deadline nears next week, so expect a flurry of action in the coming days. The New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs land on opposite sides of those trade rumors, with the former far from contention and the latter gearing up for a Super Bowl push. While they’re not in the same caliber of roster, this could still be a competitive game between AFC foes.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Jets vs. Chiefs in NFL Week 9.
Jets vs. Chiefs prediction, preview
It’s been a rough season for the Jets, who entered with high hopes after winning the opener and covering the spread against a couple of playoff contenders in Weeks 2 and 3. However, they’re now only 2-6 after dropping three straight matchups – a loss at the hands of the Dolphins and another loss to the Raiders in which they choked away a lead have put a real damper on things. There are positives to glean from the campaign thus far, thankfully. The offense appears serviceable with Geno Smith at the helm, averaging 21.3 PPG and ranking 11th in EPA/play. The veteran QB isn’t part of the long-term plan, but the surrounding pieces are all largely young and improving. Braelon Allen is in the midst of a breakout in the backfield and they get Breece Hall back from injury this week; while Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion, AD Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. are showing promise. However, they face a difficult defensive matchup, and New York’s own defense must perform as well. Overall, the Jets are allowing a respectable 23.5 PPG and are 18th in EPA/play allowed, but they’re 28th in success rate allowed and are trending in the wrong direction – following a very solid first five weeks, this group has now conceded 26 points or more in each of the last three games. No. 2 pick David Bailey will be back on the edge after missing last week, but EDGE Joseph Ossai and LB Trevin Wallace are both out while DT Harrison Phillips is questionable.
The Jets are finding their place as a stable organization, but the Chiefs have operated on stable ground for what feels like ages. They’re coming off back-to-back losses to the Seahawks and Broncos – the latter of which they nearly completed a comeback against – but had won five straight before that. At 5-2, they’re second in the AFC West and are firm contenders, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them add help at the trade deadline next week in the form of a wideout or other position of need. Kansas City averages 23.9 PPG and sits fourth in EPA/play, also coming in at fourth and fifth in success rate and explosive play rate. While Kenneth Walker III was somewhat bottled up over these two losses, he’s been one of the league’s best runners over most of the season and will continue to operate as the heartbeat of this attack. Of course, you can never count Patrick Mahomes out under center, and Rashee Rice returned to the receiving corps with a touchdown last week. Aside from the usual suspects, Emmett Johnson is a name to watch for after the rookie RB housed a long touchdown last week and finished with 128 receiving yards on five catches. The Chiefs’ defense is also among the NFL’s premier units with a low 18.7 PPG allowed, but in terms of efficiency, they are 12th in EPA/play allowed. Standout rookie CB Mansoor Delane remains out this week, as is DT Peter Woods and fellow DT Omarr Norman-Lott.
Jets vs. Chiefs pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Chiefs were a -9.5 favorite at home with -535 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Jets were a +400 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 48.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If I had to pick – and I do – I’d target an alt spread of +10.5 for the Jets in this spot. The return of Bailey as a disruptor in this pass rush should prove huge this week, though the other losses on defense are notable. This unit does rank third in EPA/rush allowed, though, so perhaps they can do enough to slow Walker down somewhat and limit the damage in the run game. Now, Kansas City should still find the end zone a couple of times, so don’t start thinking this becomes an outright upset just yet. However, the New York offense is actually a very respectable unit as a whole and has the pieces to hang around with the opposition here, even in a tough road environment.
The Jets should manage to keep this game from becoming a blowout. They covered this 10.5-point spread we’re taking against the Packers, Lions and Patriots, also doing so against the Raiders. For what it’s worth, the one loss they have on their record by more than this margin came by 11 points against the Bears back in Week 4. We can argue over whether moral victories exist in football, but with New York showing signs of improvement compared to in past seasons, I like them to secure one by keeping this game against a real contender within double digits at Arrowhead.
