The wheels have fully come off the bus for the Indianapolis Colts. They ended last season with seven straight losses to crash out of a playoff position and have dropped four in a row to fall to 2-6, the latest a 42-7 humiliation at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. One year ago, the Colts looked like a Super Bowl contender; now, they’re a prime candidate to blow their roster up ahead of next week’s trade deadline.
Indianapolis started that process before Week 8 by shipping offensive lineman Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner back to the San Francisco 49ers. Basically every other notable player on the roster has been involved in trade rumors, including three-time Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor, who led the league in total touchdowns last season.
If Taylor is either traded before Week 9 or limited for injury prevention reasons, Seth McGowan could be an asset. McGowan has been one of the most added players in Yahoo Sports fantasy leagues over the past week, although he is still rostered in just 31% of leagues.
Results and Usage
This season, Taylor has accounted for 148 of the team’s 226 total rushing attempts and 169 of its 390 touches overall, so it’s clearly a one-man offense. Behind him, though, McGowan doesn’t have any significant competition at running back; he’s taken 37 carries, quarterback Daniel Jones has 25, and no other player on the roster has more than six. DJ Giddens has made the most of those six carries this season, but unless the trade return for Taylor includes a young running back prospect, McGowan will likely step into a bellcow role.
He could be capable of handling it; his 54.1% success rate this season is equal to Taylor’s, and he was the preferred option during his senior season at Kentucky. His quick processing and functional agility stood out on his scouting report, and while his elusiveness score ranks just 42nd among all players with at least 25 rushing attempts, it’s actually higher than Taylor’s. He’s also averaged more yards after contact per attempt than Taylor, and their Pro Football Focus grades are virtually identical. McGowan certainly isn’t as dynamic a receiver as Taylor is, but he’s been effective enough as a runner to be fantasy-viable in a larger role.
Future Outlook
Red zone performance is a major part of fantasy football, and McGowan has taken only five carries inside the red zone this season, so it’s hard to predict how he’d do. However, despite ceding plenty of snaps to Dante Dowdell with the Wildcats, McGowan was Kentucky’s preferred option in the red zone in his senior season, scoring 12 touchdowns, the fourth-most in the SEC. NFL.com’s scouting report on him highlighted his productivity in short-yardage situations, and that’s remained the case so far in the NFL; on carries with one to three yards to the line to gain, McGowan has turned his five carries into 27 yards and three first downs, a far better per-carry average than Taylor in the same split. Of course, the sample size is tiny, but his ability to make plays in tight windows could serve him well in the red zone, especially with Nelson, the team’s best run-blocker, now in Seattle.
So far this season, the Colts have operated a relatively run-centric attack. They rank 14th in passing attempts and 11th in rushing attempts per game, calling runs at a slightly above-average rate. That’s especially true in the red zone, as Indianapolis ranks fifth with 10 rushing touchdowns. The Colts’ passing attack has been horrendous, as Jones has completed just 60.4% of his passes for five touchdowns and nine interceptions, ranking second-to-last among qualified starters by PFF’s standards. If Jones ends up being traded, I’m not sure Anthony Richardson represents an upgrade, so Indianapolis would likely to continue to lean on its running backs if Richardson ends up starting on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys have been consistently beaten by opposing running backs this season, as they’ve given up the fourth-most DraftKings FPTS per game to the position. Only three teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing running backs than Dallas, and only three have allowed more rushing touchdowns. The Cowboys have also allowed the second-most touchdowns within the red zone, which will be key for a running back without significant explosive play potential. Nose tackle Otito Ogbonnia could help slow McGowan down, given that he’s predominantly an interior runner, but neither of Dallas’ inside linebackers, DeMarvion Overshown and Dee Winters, has been much of a run-stuffer.
