Caleb Williams Passing Yards Pick for Seahawks vs. Bears

Chicago brings a 5-2 record to Lumen Field tonight, where Seattle just throttled Kansas City 20-3 to hand the Chiefs their first loss. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams arrives fresh from consecutive 300-yard performances, while Seattle’s Sam Darnold tries to build on the sharper, cleaner football he played against Kansas City. Below, I analyze my favorite prop bet for Williams tonight.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Most all stats provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.

Caleb Williams Passing Yards Pick at Seahawks

Caleb Williams under 235.5 passing yards (-113)

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams carved up Atlanta and New England for 613 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions after returning from his hamstring injury. Across four starts, he has completed 71.0% of his throws, with Chicago ranking fourth in EPA/dropback. All the same, against the Dark Sid, I’m taking under 235.5 passing yards at the pictured -113.

Seattle coach Mike Macdonald can hurry Williams with four rushers while protecting against deeper completions. Through seven games, the Seahawks have allowed just 5.2 yards per attempt and stopped opponents on 67 of 93 third downs. Williams has helped Chicago by checking down on a league-high 15% of his throws; Seattle can make him settle for those outlets, then tackle receivers before they reach the sticks. He’ll need repeated conversions to pile up yardage that way.

Bears coach Ben Johnson has exceeded expected pass rate by at least 4.4 percentage points in three of Williams’ four starts, so Chicago has shown a willingness to throw. With running back Kyle Monangai out and Seattle allowing 3.5 YPC, Johnson could lean harder on his quarterback. At -113, I’ll accept that volume risk, backing Seattle to limit the deeper gains that would let Williams clear 235.5 without sustaining long possessions. He’s elusive, but he can be plenty inaccurate, too.

Best prop: Caleb Williams under 235.5 passing yards (-113)