Luther Burden III Receiving Yards Pick for Seahawks vs. Bears

Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba brings 867 yards and eight touchdowns into tonight’s matchup with Chicago after torching Kansas City for 150 yards last week. The Bears counter with a receiver who has shredded Atlanta and New England for 225 yards over the past two games: Luther Burden III. Below, I analyze my favorite prop bet for Burden III tonight.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Most all stats provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.

Luther Burden III Receiving Yards Pick at Seahawks

Luther Burden III under 53.5 receiving yards (-110)

Luther Burden III has punished defenses for 491 yards through seven games (2.70 YPRR), including 225 since quarterback Caleb Williams returned two starts ago. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald has answers for receivers who turn short throws into long gains, and I’m taking under 53.5 receiving yards (-110).

Against San Francisco in December 2023, Macdonald’s Ravens held receiver Deebo Samuel to 47 yards on 12 targets. Baltimore played 82% zone coverage to handle motion without chasing receivers across the formation, while moving a physical corner inside and preserving its safety’s freedom to move around. Seattle now leads the NFL in zone usage, giving underneath defenders chances to watch Williams and close as Burden catches the ball. Through seven games, Seattle has allowed wide receivers just 5.8 yards per target.

Burden has thrived against zone, and Bears coach Ben Johnson could use more three-receiver formations after tight end Cole Kmet’s season-ending injury. Burden has run routes on 91% of dropbacks from those sets, compared with 65.5% overall. Rams receiver Puka Nacua also ripped Seattle for 225 yards last December, winning contested catches and exploiting coverage mistakes. At -110, I’m backing Seattle’s underneath defenders to tackle Burden before he can turn those extra chances into chunk gains.

Best prop: Luther Burden III under 53.5 receiving yards (-110).