Even though each of four of its five teams have suffered major injuries this season, the Northwest Division is shaping up as arguably the most competitive one in basketball. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves have all made at least the conference finals in the past four seasons, and none of them lead the division.
Instead, the division leader is the Portland Trail Blazers, who have an opportunity to move to 5-1 tonight with a road game against the Nuggets, set to begin at 9 p.m. ET.
Jayson Kent (G-League), Ja Morant (hamstring), Shaedon Sharpe (meniscus), and John Tonje (G-League) remain out for the Trail Blazers, though Morant is the only one among the four to have played significant minutes this season. For Denver, Spencer Jones (hamstring) and Julian Strawther (knee) are both out, and Alpha Diallo (wrist) is questionable.
The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-174 Moneyline), with the point total set to 231.5. Portland is +146 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this divisional showdown and offer a prediction.
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets preview, prediction
The Trail Blazers have had a fairly easy schedule, facing the Sacramento Kings and the Utah Jazz, but they’ve also picked up an impressive result, winning a shootout against the Los Angeles Lakers. Deni Avdija picked up right where he left off after last season’s All-Star campaign, and Damian Lillard looks healthy after missing last season with a torn Achilles. He and Toumani Camara have both provided secondary scoring alongside Avdija, and Camara and Donovan Clingan have anchored the defense. As a result, Portland ranks fourth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating so far. Scoot Henderson has been basically the Trail Blazers’ only disappointment.
Denver had a few unconvincing performances in the early-season losses to the Thunder and the Golden State Warriors, but it’s back over .500 thanks to a pair of wins over the Pelicans and one over the Phoenix Suns. Despite a rough game against Oklahoma City, Nikola Jokić is back to doing Jokić things, as he’s averaged 21.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game for the season. Jamal Murray, who was a first-time All-Star last season, has chipped in 25.8 points per game behind ruthlessly efficient three-point shooting, and second-round big Trevon Brazile has provided some solid minutes. Overall, the Nuggets have been a slightly net-negative team.
Trail Blazers at Nuggets pick, best bet
Neither of these teams attacks the basket much, but Denver should have an edge in interior play. The Nuggets have attempted three more field goals per game than Portland has and finished at a slightly higher rate; although Jokić has attempted fewer shots at the rim this season, he has made more than 70% of them. Defensively, though, the Trail Blazers should be able to make that margin up, as no team has allowed fewer attempts or makes at the rim than Portland, and only two teams have allowed more makes than Denver. The Nuggets were slightly more stingy on the interior last season, but Jokić isn’t consistently engaged defensively and Clingan leads the league so far in rim points saved per 100 possessions.
Despite having Jokić to man the middle, Denver has actually been out-rebounded this season, and the Trail Blazers lead the league in rebounding percentage. Given that Portland also had a higher rebounding percentage than the Nuggets last season before Denver’s backup center, Jonas Valančiūnas, returned to Lithuania, that edge could be sustainable. The Trail Blazers have also been better in transition this season, in part because they seem to have fixed their turnover issue and the Nuggets’ has exacerbated. I’d expect Denver to start taking better care of the ball, since Jokić has historically been fairly careful, but Lillard’s ball-handling has stabilized Portland’s offense enough that it won’t necessarily struggle to protect the ball like it did last season. I also expect both teams to continue getting to the free throw line at will, given that they ranked first and third in fouls drawn per game in 2025/26.
Shooting remains a critical swing factor, as the Nuggets led the league in three-point percentage in 2025/26 and the Trail Blazers finished third-to-last. So far this season, Denver still ranks sixth in three-point percentage, while Portland has jumped to 12th, and the Trail Blazers have attempted the most threes of any team, including the most wide-open triples. Although Camara’s accuracy (51.3%) is almost certain to drop, Lillard’s could rise somewhat from 34.0%, just as Murray’s 53.5% three-point shooting is bound to drop and Jokić’s 20.8% to rise. As in 2025/26, Portland has done a better job stopping its opponents from generating uncontested triples.
Of course, home-court advantage could swing the game in favor of the Nuggets, who have traditionally enjoyed one of the league’s most potent edges. However, the Trail Blazers have enough solid rim protection, hustle in transition, and three-point shooting to take advantage of Denver’s weaknesses. Portland has been much better with Morant on the floor, but its X-factors are its rebounding and rim protection, which have been far better without him. Its defense hardly looked out of sorts in similar elevation at Salt Lake City’s Delta Center on Saturday, albeit against a less potent offense. At +146, it’s worth backing the Trail Blazers to pull off the upset.
