Halloween brings a spooktacular seven-game NBA slate to the table with a couple of standout Western Conference clashes. At 8:30 ET, the Houston Rockets are set to host the Oklahoma City Thunder in what should be a great matchup, though the visitors are dealing with numerous injuries to key contributors that might hurt their upside for the moment.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s Thunder vs. Rockets matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Rockets prediction, preview
The Thunder were expected to remain title contenders this season, a little over a calendar year removed from their last Larry O’Brien Trophy. Not even two full weeks into the campaign, they’re now expected to be without all of Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace for the foreseeable future due to various injuries. They are 4-1 with one of the best players in the world on their roster, but how they’ll fare with such key pieces sidelined is uncertain. Oklahoma City currently ranks 11th in NETRTG at +3.7 and has needed defense to win games – the unit allows 104.6 PPG to opponents, second fewest, and sits fifth in DEFRTG. They’re eighth in rebounds per game (46.0) and third in blocks (6.8), but both of those marks may tick downward in Holmgren’s absence. Thankfully, they do rank fourth-best in opponent FG% (42.6%), but missing standout defenders does hurt that outlook, too. Frankly, the offense has been far from impressive and seriously needs to step up. The Thunder average 108.2 PPG – 27th in the league – and sits 21st in OFFRTG. The team’s efficiency leaves much to be desired at 25th in FG% (44.0%) and 3P% (30.9%), so there may be some ugly nights ahead.
The now-depleted roster is still headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the two-time MVP may not be able to shoulder the load himself despite averaging 26.0 PPG as one of the NBA’s most prolific scorers. Two of the team’s five double-digit scorers – Williams and Holmgren – are out of the picture, while Wallace and Alex Caruso (out; ankle) are both important perimeter pieces on the sidelines. That leaves Ajay Mitchell to step up with his 18.6 PPG, and the same goes for Jared McCain, who’s posting 11.0 PPG. Isaiah Hartenstein’s role at the five will grow even more crucial as he brings 9.4 points and a team-best 9.6 rebounds per contest, and rookie Aday Mara could immediately see his own responsibilities expand here.
The Rockets suffered their first loss of the season last night on the road to the Mavericks, but they’ve largely looked very impressive thus far. They hold a 5-1 record with standout wins over the Spurs and multiple victories against the Hawks, and there’s quite a bit to like about the unit they’re rolling out. Houston is third in NETRTG at +11.1 and has one of the league’s top offenses, averaging the third-most PPG (121.0) and sitting second in OFFRTG. The defense is also quite solid while conceding 110.0 PPG and clocking in at 11th in DEFRTG, but it hasn’t quite been the stifling group that we saw over the last two seasons. However, the Rockets do rank second in FG% (49.8%) and fifth in 3P% (37.9%), though the latter comes on low volume. They’re also sixth in assists (28.0 per game), 12th in rebounding (45.5) and top eight in both steals (10.5) and blocks (5.5). This is a really good two-way team, but the injury report does leave them a bit depleted tonight with Fred VanVleet (injury management) and Reed Sheppard (back) both out in the backcourt and center Steven Adams (soleus) also out.
Still, Alperen Sengun is back in the picture after missing a pair of matchups, averaging team-best marks in points (24.5), rebounds (9.0) and assists (7.0) per game. Kevin Durant continues to score like a superstar at all three levels with 23.3 PPG, and Amen Thompson brings all-around production of 17.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Jabari Smith Jr. is posting a career-best 17.2 points on a much-improved 42.9% 3P%, also bringing down 5.3 boards per outing. Tari Eason has also pitched in 10.3 points and 6.7 rebounds per night.
Thunder vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as a 2.5-point favorite at home tonight with -142 odds on the Moneyline. The Thunder are a +120 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 219.5 combined points.
Look, I understand that Oklahoma City won a title just two seasons ago. I also understand that this team has one of the best pure scoring talents we’ve ever seen. However, the Thunder are so shorthanded at the moment after losing two All-Star talents and a pair of All-Defensive guards. That means they’re without four key talents in the starting rotation, and while the depth of this team has been notable in recent years, they did trade away guys like Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins who were proven contributors when need be. This group isn’t as deep as in years past and may not have what it takes to keep up with Houston in this matchup, even with the home team coming off a hard-fought game last night.
The spread should probably be a little bit wider given the state of these two teams. The Rockets should dominate on the glass and can key in defensively on Gilgeous-Alexander, forcing other names to step up in the meantime. Mitchell has proven capable of elevating his game in the past, but it’s still tough to see this Thunder team sticking around with a team like Houston at the moment – or at least until they can get a consistent starting five going with a bit of continuity in the lineup.
