The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. The ACC plays host to one of these matchups, as we’ll see the Miami Hurricanes take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in a game that could be a bit closer than what the market expects.
Miami is undefeated and largely untested to this point, with an eight point overtime victory over Florida State standing out among all of the blowouts the Hurricanes have been involved in. By contrast, North Carolina has played plenty of close games, including a brutal overtime loss to Syracuse a week ago — in which the Tar Heels blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between Miami and North Carolina.
Miami is a 14-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 53.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 9 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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Miami vs. North Carolina Prediction
This was one of the first games that jumped out at me when odds were released last Sunday. For starters, it’s an excellent spot to back the Tar Heels at home with Miami staring at a massive game against Notre Dame next week. It’s hard to imagine that Mario Cristobal’s team won’t be looking ahead to what could be the game of the year in college football, and who could blame them? After all, Notre Dame will surely be looking to exact some revenge after last season’s result kept the Fighting Irish out of the College Football Playoff. But before they head to South Bend, the Hurricanes could have some trouble on their hands with a North Carolina team that has already exceeded preseason expectations and continues to improve each week.
The Tar Heels offense is much improved under the tutelage of Bobby Petrino (54th in success rate, 43rd in passing success rate), and those numbers have come against a very difficult schedule of opposing defenses to this point. Conversely, Miami hasn’t exactly played many teams with a pulse this season, and when they have, the Hurricanes struggled in games against Wake Forest and Florida State. In fact, if it wasn’t for some questionable officiating decisions during the overtime period of their game against the Seminoles, it’s entirely possible that the Hurricanes would already be sporting a loss coming into this week.
Miami’s defense has taken a dramatic step back following the departures of four crucial players from last season’s excellent unit. Not only did Miami allow Clemson’s anemic offense to put up 350 yards back on October 3, the Hurricanes followed that up by allowing 443 yards and nearly seven yards per play to Florida State at home. If they are unable to generate consistent pressure, I fully expect Billy Edwards and the North Carolina passing offense to see success against a secondary that is 63rd in passing success rate allowed and 86th in EPA per pass allowed.
On the other side of the ball, the Tar Heels will certainly have issues containing Miami’s explosive offense, and it wouldn’t shock me if Darian Mensah, Malachi Toney and company score 30+ on Saturday. However, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Hurricanes come out a bit flat in a clear lookahead spot with next week’s contest against Notre Dame looming. There’s a reason Cristobal has been very poor as a favorite of at least two touchdowns in his coaching career (10-15 against the spread), and that could rear its ugly head in this one.
Miami vs North Carolina Best Bet
North Carolina is far from perfect and I do expect Miami to put up points in this game. However, Bill Belichick has fared very well as an underdog against ranked teams in his short North Carolina tenure, with the legendary head coaching boasting a 3-0 ATS record in these spots over the last two seasons. Ultimately, I’ll take the two full touchdowns with the Tar Heels as a pesky home underdog on Saturday.