The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. The Big 12 has been an extremely competitive league from top to bottom all season long, and we can expect more exciting games on Saturday as the title race heats up.
One game that could throw a wrench into the title race comes in Ames, where we’ll see the Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the Iowa State Cyclones. The Cowboys are fresh off a blowout victory over Colorado while Iowa State was run over by Arizona for its second consecutive defeat. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State.
Oklahoma State is an 8.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 57.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 9 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Prediction
There was a lot of negative buzz surrounding Iowa State heading into the season, and understandably so. After all, the Cyclones underwent a complete overhaul of the roster in the offseason as former head coach Matt Campbell moved on to Penn State. While Iowa State hasn’t been the disaster that most expected to this point, this is still a team that has now failed to cover the spread in four straight games. The Cyclones offense has struggled mightily in three of its four Big 12 games, while the defense has allowed an average of 34 points per game in conference play. That doesn’t bode well for a matchup against one of the best passing offenses in the nation.
Oklahoma State has rebounded nicely after dropping its season opener, rattling off five wins in six games and covering the spread in each of those contests. Drew Mestemaker has not only performed very well when stepping up in class this season, he’s attracted the attention of many NFL teams that could end up selecting him in the first round of next year’s NFL Draft. The former North Texas quarterback has thrown for over 1,400 yards and recorded 13 total touchdowns in four Big 12 games to this point. This week, the sophomore should see more success this week against an Iowa State defense that is outside the top 100 in EPA per play, passing success rate allowed and yards per play.
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Best Bet
A week ago, I targeted a strong showing from Oklahoma State’s offense in what I felt was a favorable matchup against Colorado. The same logic applies to this week’s game for Eric Morris’ offense — a unit that is ranked ranked inside the top 10 nationally in success rate and yards per play, while sitting inside the top 15 in yards per dropback and passing success rate.
Even if Oklahoma State gets off to a slow start, this is an offense that can strike quickly and score in bunches — as we saw in their 34 point second-half showing against Colorado a week ago. With that in mind, I’ll back Oklahoma State to exceed its team total and put up a big number for the sixth consecutive game.