Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction and Pick for Saturday 10/31/26

Wisconsin got a huge win last Saturday night, upsetting USC as the home underdog. Now they travel to Iowa to face a Hawkeyes team that was upset as the favorite last week at Minnesota. Kickoff is at 12pm ET on Saturday 10/31/26. Iowa opened a 3.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, but Wisconsin money has come in throughout the week to get the number under a field goal. It’s projected to be a rock fight, with the total set at 36.5. Here’s my prediction and best bet for the matchup.

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Wisconsin vs. Iowa prediction

I backed the Badgers last week as home underdogs to USC. It was a dominant performance for Wisconsin, against a USC squad with some serious road struggles under Lincoln Riley, particularly out east. But much like UCF, there could be a letdown coming.

Prior to the win over the Trojans, the Badgers’ only wins in the Big Ten were over Michigan State and Penn State. Those teams are a combined 0-9 in the conference. When Wisconsin went on the road to face a physical defense, it scored seven points in a loss at UCLA. What’s ahead of Wisconsin this week? A road trip against a physical defense.

Iowa is off a tough loss at Minnesota in a grinder of a game. The Hawkeyes were favored by about a touchdown, but lost 13-10 on a walk off field goal. It was a flukey game in the sense that Iowa had more passing and rushing yards than Minnesota. It’s the first time Iowa has won both of those stats and lost the game since 2009.

History tells us that Kirk Ferentz and company generally bounce back in this spot. Since 2024, Iowa is 7-2 ATS following a loss, covering by 8.9 points per game. That sample includes one instance this season, when the Hawkeyes went to Washington on a short week, coming off a loss to Ohio State. Despite being priced as the underdog, Iowa jumped out to a 27-0 lead in Seattle, eventually winning by 17 points.

While Colten Joseph was able to do some damage with his legs in the loss to UCLA, he was completely shutdown as a passer. The Wisconsin QB was just 6-for-16 for 66 yards through the air. I’m expecting the Iowa defense to give him similar problems in this one.

Great motivational spot for the Hawkeyes at home, catching Wisconsin off what will likely be its win of the season. I’ll back Iowa at home here.

Wisconsin vs. Iowa best bet

I backed Iowa at -3 earlier in the week, but came back for more on Friday to play Iowa on the moneyline. I disagree with the move on Wisconsin, and think way too much stock is going into last week’s results. With the move on the price, I’d now recommend simply playing the Hawkeyes on the ML to win the game.

CFB Best Bet: Iowa ML (-135)

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