The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. While there are more important games in the Big 12 on Saturday, one of the matchups that’s caught my eye comes in Boulder, where the Colorado Buffaloes are set to host the Kansas State Wildcats.
Kansas State has struggled in Big 12 play this season and is reeling a bit following last week’s defeat at the hands of Arizona State. On the other side, while Colorado appears to be in free fall after suffering its fifth straight loss a week ago, the market is actually indicating that the Buffaloes are the right side in this game. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between Kansas State and Colorado.
Colorado is a 1.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 46.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 9 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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Kansas State vs. Colorado Prediction
It’s been a bit of a disappointing season for Kansas State to this point, and the Wildcats have especially struggled on the road in Big 12 play. Kansas State dropped its first road game of the season to Cincinnati back in September, and the woes away from Manhattan, Kansas continued last week in a loss to Arizona State — a game in which the Wildcats were thoroughly outplayed at the line of scrimmage.
Arizona State’s defense is a pretty average Power 4 unit by most metrics, but Kansas State tallied just 278 yards and averaged 3.8 yards per play in that game. For the second straight week, the Wildcats are expected to be without quarterback Avery Johnson due to a nagging shoulder injury, and we saw that the drop-off from Johnson to backup quarterback Jacob Knuth was pretty significant considering Knuth finished with under 200 yards through the air and tallied just 19 rushing yards on nine carries.
While he should be a bit more familiar with offense this time around, I wouldn’t expect Knuth to take a dramatic step forward this week against a Colorado defense that should hold its own at the line of scrimmage. After all, the Buffaloes are ranked ninth in EPA per rush and have faced a few offenses (Utah, Oklahoma State, Northwestern) that are certainly more potent than what they’ll see against Kansas State on Saturday.
On offense, Colorado should be able to run the ball with consistent success against a Kansas State defense that just surrendered 147 yards on the ground a week ago. With Isaac Wilson still under center, I’d expect the Buffaloes offense to lean into the ground game, which should shorten the game a bit and steer us away from a potential shootout in Boulder.
Kansas State vs. Colorado Best Bet
Last week, I faded the Kansas State offense on the road in a spot where the Wildcats were expected to turn to a backup quarterback. This week, I’m going back to the well with a similar wager ahead of Saturday’s clash. This should be a game without many explosive plays on either side, and I do think the strongest edge in the contest is the Colorado rush defense against Kansas State’s diminished ground attack. With such a low full-game total, I’d prefer to hone in on the Kansas State team total under while it’s still sitting at a reasonable number.