Going into the season, both Hull City and Ipswich Town likely circled their Halloween clash as a must-win for survival in the top flight, as both looked like early contenders to immediately suffer the drop. It’s possible that, over the course of the long season, both teams eventually drop back into the relegation scrap, but so far, both teams are on 10 points, four points clear of the bottom three.
This match is set to begin at 11 a.m. ET (4 p.m. local) at the MKM Stadium in Hull.
The Tigers and the Tractor Boys are both +165 at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Tractor Boys are +165. There are +240 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this battle of newly-promoted sides and provide my favorite bet.
Hull City vs. Ipswich Town Best Bet:
- Correct Score: 1-1 (+550): There are some games that just have the vibe of a 1-1, and this is one if I’ve ever seen one. Hull has drawn four of its eight games, and Ipswich Town drew its most recent contest 1-1. More generally, the Tractor Boys have a more impressive attack than the Tigers but a weaker defense, so a draw could be the most likely outcome.
Hull City vs. Ipswich Town prediction, pick
Hull has been one of the stories of the season, as it picked up a win over Manchester United on the opening day of the season, found a late winner against Coventry in Matchweek 2, and was the last team to concede a goal, only doing so in Matchweek 4. The Tigers have somewhat slowed down since their hot start, as they haven’t won in any of their last six Premier League matches, but they’ve only lost twice. Ipswich has had both a higher ceiling and a lower floor, as it picked up wins over Sunderland, Crystal Palace, and Fulham but lost four other matches before finally picking up its first draw of the season against Nottingham Forest. Both Hull and the Tractor Boys have been eliminated from the Carabao Cup, so each should be singularly focused on league survival.
On paper, the Tigers have the less impressive attacking talents, but its front line has been pretty well-rounded, as seven different players have found the back of the net at least once. Mohamed Belloumi, who had just five goal contributions in 936 minutes in the Championship last season, has already matched that total in just 596 minutes. All in all, Hull’s attack has been weak, as it has produced the third-fewest xG worth of chances while attempting the third-fewest shots and shots on target. The Tigers have also been by far the sloppiest passing team in the league, completing just 71.2% of their passes and committing the most errors leading to a goal. However, they’ve mostly made up for it defensively, giving up merely the sixth-most xG worth of chances from the fifth-most shots on target and, more importantly, ranking near the top of the league in tackles, clearances, and ground-duel win rate. Hull has also been solid at playing the offsides trap and defending against set pieces, and Konstantinos Tzolakis has been a true hero between the sticks, leading the Premier League in saves and ranking second in save percentage. Tigers fans should feel confident that Tzolakis can keep them in any game.
Ipswich Town has the more lethal attack. The Tractor Boys went all-in on the front line during the summer, bringing in Emersonn, Julio Encisco, Zian Flemming, and Daizen Maeda. They’ve produced several late winners in the early part of the campaign, as all three of their wins have been settled in the 90th minute or later. All of those investments have paid off; Ipswich Town has produced chances worth the 11th-most expected goals, and it’s scored the sixth-most goals despite attempting the fewest shots. The Tractor Boys have also distributed the ball fairly well compared to the other newly-promoted sides. However, they’ve struggled defensively, allowing the most xG worth of chances from the second-most shots and third-most shots on target, conceding the second-most goals. Ipswich Town has been very active in the passing lanes and has registered among the most blocks, but it has lost a majority of both its ground and aerial duels. The Tractor Boys’ defense has been very boom-or-bust, as while they have forced the most high turnovers leading to a shot, they’ve also been beaten on the counter, giving up the most fast-break goals. Between the sticks, Kjell Scherpen ranks sixth-to-last in Goals Prevented, saving just 60% of the shots on target that he’s faced.
In the long run, Ipswich Town has the higher ceiling because they have the better attack and because Hull’s defense hasn’t been as good as the surface-level numbers indicate. It is certainly clinical enough with its finishing to fire one past Tzolakis. However, the Tigers are good at striking on the counter, netting twice from 10 fast-break opportunities, and the Tractor Boys have been nearly as mistake-prone as Hull has. Ipswich’s swarming defense works well against teams that pass a lot, but the Tigers are the least reliant on build-up play of any team in the league, and they haven’t lost at home yet this season. Going with a 1-1 draw is chalky, given that each team drew its last game 1-1, but I’m going for that scoreline again.
