The college football Week 9 best bets cheat sheet is here to provide you with picks and analysis for the slate of games ahead. I’m publishing on Tuesday this week with my first two predictions for the week, but will update with any additional picks throughout the week, so be sure to check back.
Let’s breakdown the best bets below.
Baylor at UCF (Friday – 7:30pm ET)
We see it over and over again in college football. A week after BYU defeated Notre Dame as a double digit home underdog in a massive Saturday night game in Provo, it all came undone. It was a dreadful spot for a long trip out to Orlando for an afternoon kickoff. In what turned out to be a bonkers game, UCF got the outright win in overtime as roughly a touchdown home dog.
Guess what? Now it’s time for the Knights to fall into their own flat spot. While UCF does get to play at home, it’s a short week leading into a Friday night game, following the upset of No. 2 overall. Vibes are high, plenty of partying to celebrate the monster win … what could go wrong?
Enter Baylor. The Bears are off consecutive frustrating losses to TCU and Kansas. It resulted in the end of the road for Dave Aranda, as the head coach was fired on Sunday. The very capable Joe Klanderman assumes HC duties for Baylor moving forward. He moved up from the DC role, and the defense has not been the issue with the Bears — giving up 18.5 points per game in Big 12 play.
The issue has been the inconsistency on offense. Bad turnovers and quick three-and-outs have led to more points that shouldn’t even count against the defense. Baylor showed a high ceiling when it dropped 55 points at Arizona State, prior to the bye. There is life in the offense, it just needs to be found.
Coming off back-to-back losses, along with the spark that a coach firing typically brings to a team, we can expect Baylor to be locked in for this game. Meanwhile, UCF’s stock is as high as ever, celebrating a draining OT win over a potential College Football Playoff team.
Good spot to take a more focused and desperate team to catch the opposition sleeping.
CFB Best Bet: Baylor +1.5 (-112)
Wisconsin at Iowa (Saturday – 12pm ET)
I backed the Badgers last week as home underdogs to USC. It was a dominant performance for Wisconsin, against a USC squad with some serious road struggles under Lincoln Riley, particularly out east. But much like UCF, there could be a letdown coming.
Prior to the win over the Trojans, the Badgers’ only wins in the Big Ten were over Michigan State and Penn State. Those teams are a combined 0-9 in the conference. When Wisconsin went on the road to face a physical defense, it scored seven points in a loss at UCLA. What’s ahead of Wisconsin this week? A road trip against a physical defense.
Iowa is off a tough loss at Minnesota in a grinder of a game. The Hawkeyes were favored by about a touchdown, but lost 13-10 on a walk off field goal. It was a flukey game in the sense that Iowa had more passing and rushing yards than Minnesota. It’s the first time Iowa has won both of those stats and lost the game since 2009.
History tells us that Kirk Ferentz and company generally bounce back in this spot. Since 2024, Iowa is 7-2 ATS following a loss, covering by 8.9 points per game. That sample includes one instance this season, when the Hawkeyes went to Washington on a short week, coming off a loss to Ohio State. Despite being priced as the underdog, Iowa jumped out to a 27-0 lead in Seattle, eventually winning by 17 points.
While Colten Joseph was able to do some damage with his legs in the loss to UCLA, he was completely shutdown as a passer. The Wisconsin QB was just 6-for-16 for 66 yards through the air. I’m expecting the Iowa defense to give him similar problems in this one.
Great motivational spot for the Hawkeyes at home, catching Wisconsin off what will likely be its win of the season. I’ll back Iowa at home here.
If the price on DraftKings is -3.5 with short juice, I’d split the bet to be laying -3 flat. You can bet the -3.5 and -2.5 and wind up with what equates to Iowa -3 in the price range of -122.
CFB Best Bet: Iowa -3 (-122)
