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Prediction, pick for Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan at UFC Vegas 123

Prediction, pick for Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan at UFC Vegas 123

UFC Sports Betting Picks DraftKings Network MMA

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By: Ryan Wohl

Following a successful UFC 333 numbered event in Abu Dhabi, the promotion is back at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a Fight Night. Tonight’s event is headlined by a five-round Lightweight contest between No. 12 Renato Moicano and No. 14 Tom Nolan. Moicano was originally scheduled to fight Brian Ortega at UFC 331 on September 19, but the fight was canceled after Ortega suffered an injury, forcing Moicano to switch opponents and dates. 

Check out my best bet below for Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.

RELATED UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan fight card, odds, betting splits

Tom Nolan Moneyline (+100)

Moicano is a former UFC Lightweight title challenger with a 21-7-1 record and 13 finishes. He comes off a second-round submission win against Chris Duncan in April. Moicano is looking to win his second straight fight for the first time since 2024. 

Nolan, 26, is one of the top young fighters on the rise at 155 pounds. He is in the midst of a five-fight winning streak and most recently beat Fares Ziam in June. This is the biggest opportunity of Nolan’s career so far. Heading into this fight, Nolan is 11-1 with six finishes and a 5-1 record in the UFC.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Moicano is the slight favorite at -120 with Nolan as a +100 underdog. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds, with the over at -210 and the under at +160. Nolan is four inches taller (6’3″ vs. 5’11”) with a one-inch reach advantage (73″ vs. 72″) over Moicano.

Although Moicano has the edge in strikes absorbed per minute (3.55 vs. 3.74) and striking accuracy (49% vs. 45%, Nolan averages more significant strikes per minute (4.84 vs. 4.10). On the ground, it is close as well, with Moicano landing 0.60 more takedowns per 15 minutes. Although Moicano has more high-level experience, Nolan is 11 years younger, making him the fresher fighter entering this bout. Since Nolan is taller, he must use that to his advantage to not allow Moicano to close the distance. With Moicano being very inconsistent recently, I’m taking Nolan to win this fight due to his elite upside and untapped potential. 

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Ryan Wohl
Ryan Wohl
Ryan is a University of Arizona graduate and Philadelphia native. Since 2024, he has been a writer for DraftKings Network, primarily covering combat sports. He is a big Philly sports fan and loves to collect sneakers, as well.
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