Iowa State running back Aiden Flora ran competently at BYU, gaining 86 yards on 17 carries, and watched his offense score ten points anyway. The Cyclones could not turn his gains into sustained passing. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita spent his last game flinging the ball over West Virginia for 341 yards. Both teams return from their bye, with Fifita poised to punish Iowa State after each failed possession. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Arizona Wildcats and the Iowa State Cyclones.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Arizona vs. Iowa State prediction, preview
Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor completed 16 of 29 passes for a paltry 98 yards at BYU. Iowa State converted two of 13 third downs. Flora averaged 5.1 yards per carry, yet Raynor repeatedly failed to reach receivers far enough downfield to extend possessions. Losing receiver Dominic Overby for the season removes another option from a passing offense that already struggled to recover when its first approach failed.
Arizona defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales can challenge Raynor with defenders who just smothered Cincinnati. The Bearcats managed 74 rushing yards and 153 passing, failing two of three fourth-down attempts. Iowa State wideout Cody Jackson caught six passes for 160 yards against West Virginia, then went without a catch at BYU. Jackson can hurt this defense; Raynor still has to get him the ball when Gonzales contests the early runs and prepares for the throw.
Gonzales should expect plenty of Flora, though. He shredded West Virginia for 212 rushing yards, including a 63-yard touchdown. Arizona then let the Mountaineers grind out 303 rushing yards on 76 attempts. Iowa State can stay on the field if Flora repeatedly reaches the second level, and Arizona’s defenders still need to tackle more cleanly. Arizona did stop West Virginia on five of seven fourth-down attempts, though. Gonzales’ defenders still ended enough of those possessions to let Fifita build a lead.
Fifita has been marvelous at finding receivers despite his own depleted group. Wideout Isaiah Mizell caught six passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns at West Virginia; receiver Brandon Phelps added four for 88 and a score. Fifita needed only 23 attempts for his 341 yards. Iowa State just allowed BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier to throw for 329 yards while the Cougars gained 506 overall. Mizell and Phelps should get chances to punish that coverage from ordinary field position.
Iowa State vs. Arizona pick, best bet
Wildcats running back Kedrick Reescano gained 44 yards on 11 attempts at West Virginia, with fellow back Antwan Roberts Jr. adding 63 on seven. Fifita has rushing support when an initial throw falls incomplete. Iowa State also allowed Utah to run for 205 yards, so the Cyclones have to tackle Fifita’s backs as well as cover his receivers.
Arizona hosts Homecoming at Casino Del Sol Stadium after the same preparation break Iowa State received. Flora can make the Wildcats work for the ball. Raynor’s recent passing leaves too many possessions dependent on him doing it again, while Fifita has repeatedly reached replacement receivers downfield. Fifita should turn those catches into enough touchdowns to clear ten.
Best bet: Arizona -10 (-108).
Projected score: Arizona 34, Iowa State 20.
Best Bet: Arizona -10 (-110) vs. Iowa State
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