Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson spent last Thursday running through Colorado State for 181 yards and three touchdowns. Running back Torrance Burgess Jr. rumbled for 224 yards and four more scores. They were spectacular. Utah State returns from its bye with a much sturdier defense, but coach GJ Kinne has already watched Jackson throw his way through a game when the Bobcats could not run nearly so freely. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Texas State Bobcats and the Utah State Aggies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Texas State vs. Utah State prediction, preview
At San Diego State, Jackson passed for 372 yards while Texas State averaged only 3.3 yards per rush. Receiver Beau Sparks caught ten passes for 153 yards, including a 40-yard gain. Kinne’s offense finished touchdown drives of 91 and 86 yards before halftime. Against Utah State linebacker Asher Cunningham and his teammates, Jackson can return to Sparks when the Aggies tackle Burgess near the line.
Jackson also threw two interceptions in that San Diego State loss, and Texas State wasted several long possessions while leaving the Aztecs short fields. Cunningham just helped Utah State win that way against Washington State, forcing two second-half fumbles that preceded touchdown drives of 39 and 19 yards. Texas State can dominate long stretches and still let the Aggies make this close if Jackson and his backs surrender the ball.
Utah State had a miserable first half trying to defend Boise State’s passing and rushing together. Boise State scored touchdowns after driving 89, 70 and 78 yards before halftime. The Aggies forced later stalls, but their defenders had already struggled to handle the passer alongside his backs. Jackson threatens them through both throwing and running; Burgess gives Kinne another powerful runner to feature as the defense chases the quarterback. Texas State just finished seven touchdown drives covering at least 57 yards against Colorado State.
Aggies quarterback Grady Brosterhous has a useful target in receiver Eli Wood, who caught seven passes for 102 yards at Boise State and six for 84 against Washington State. Texas State has allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt and managed only six sacks through six games. Brosterhous should get chances to find Wood, especially if the Bobcats’ rush fails to hurry him.
Utah State vs. Texas State pick, best bet
Utah State running back Javen Jacobs can hurt them, too. Jacobs ran for 139 yards on ten carries at Boise State, including a 64-yard burst. Against Washington State, though, he managed 62 yards while the Aggies converted just three of 14 third downs. Brosterhous completed 11 of 26 passes. Utah State needed Cunningham’s short fields to turn an erratic offensive night into a win.
Texas State stays at UFCU Stadium with extra recovery after playing Thursday. Wood and Jacobs should account for some Aggie scoring, and Cunningham makes ball security consequential. But Jackson has already scored through the air against rushing resistance, while Brosterhous has recently depended on defensive assistance. Kinne should finish enough of the longer drives to win by two touchdowns.
Best bet: Texas State -13.5 (-112).
Projected score: Texas State 38, Utah State 20.
Best Bet: Texas State -13.5 (-110) vs. Utah State
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