We’re a few days into the NBA season and players are shaking off the rust of the offseason. We’ve already had some memorable moments, and tonight, the Houston Rockets’ matchup against the Atlanta Hawks could provide a few more as these dark-horse title hopefuls duke it out.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s Rockets vs. Hawks matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockets vs. Hawks prediction, preview
After two games, it seems the Rockets may be back in the championship conversation. Back-to-back campaigns of 50+ wins were met with first-round playoff exits – once due to their youth and once due to the absence of a couple of key players who suffered season-ending injuries – but the unit is now looking fierce with them back on the floor. They downed the Mavericks to open the season, but it was last night’s win over the Spurs that truly stood out as clutch-time execution ultimately secured the victory against a team that has been a thorn in Houston’s side lately. Neither Fred VanVleet or Steven Adams will play tonight on the second leg of the back-to-back – both have been ruled out as part of the team’s strategy to keep them healthy, while Reed Sheppard is questionable – but they should play competitive ball even if those two don’t suit up. It is very, very early, but Houston sits ninth in NETRTG and is averaging 121.0 PPG while giving up 110.0 on the other end. The club also sits second in FG% at 51.2% and leads the NBA in 3P% at 42.6% thus far, also ranking top-10 or better in assists, steals and turnovers. The offense may bog down a little more in the halfcourt if VanVleet indeed misses this game, but even without him, the talent here should be fine. Alperen Sengun is averaging 26.0 points with 8.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists, Kevin Durant is producing 25.0 PPG with his typical efficiency, and Amen Thompson brings all-around production with his versatile skill set. Beyond them, Jabari Smith Jr. posted 30 points in the opener and can step up as a scorer in the starting five.
As good as the Rockets have looked in the small sample, it’s no exaggeration to say the Hawks look like they might contend for a title. Last season, they punted on Trae Young and embraced Jalen Johnson as the franchise superstar. It was a move that paid dividends as Atlanta went on to make the postseason, though the group fell to the eventual-champion Knicks in the first round. The front office embraced change again over the offseason by shipping former No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher out and allowing Jonathan Kuminga to move on, replacing them with Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and the No. 8 selection in Kingston Flemings. Through two games, the Hawks have two wins over the Magic and Hornets, and the numbers speak for themselves. Their NETRTG of 24.7 ranks second in the league while producing an NBA-high 130.0 PPG, allowing only 103.0 to opponents. The offense is running smoothly, ranking top-five in AST% and AST/TO ratio with the fifth-best FG% (49.7%) and sixth-best 3P% (39.5%). They’re also fourth in steals and second in opponent turnovers, too. There’s a ton to like so far, but the depth of this roster is what really stands out. Johnson is averaging 19.5 points with 10.5 rebounds and 7.0 assists, but Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads the team with 22.5 PPG. CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels and Wiggins are all producing double-digit points, and while Flemings is yet to score much, he’s producing elsewhere with 5.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists per contest. Bear in mind that Atlanta is also on leg two of a back-to-back, so the team is yet to submit an injury report.
Rockets vs. Hawks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Hawks as a 1.5-point home favorite tonight with -115 odds on the Moneyline. The Rockets are a -105 underdog to win outright with the total set at 227.5 combined points.
I fully expect this to be a close game. Houston won’t have a couple of key pieces, but this team still looked quite good even in the absence of VanVleet and Adams last year, so their absences aren’t catastrophic by any means. It should be taken with a grain of salt following some of the roster shakeups for Atlanta, but the Rockets did go 2-0 against the Hawks last season with wins of 117-95 and 104-86, though Johnson didn’t play in one of those. Realistically, these are probably a couple of the best two-way teams in the NBA this year. Both have looked excellent in their opening matchups and have made real cases to be taken seriously when it comes to the postseason chase. While the defenses have stood out so far and will likely continue to do so, the offenses have frankly looked even better. The Hawks posted 128 and 132 points in their first two games; the Rockets came up with 114 and 128 even with one of those matchups coming against Victor Wembanyama and an elite defense. Given the stellar shooting numbers so far, I’m happy to take the over on 227.5 combined points tonight and bank on the respective attacks winning out in this spot.
