There are some great games on the Week 7 NFL slate. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 7.
NFL Week 7 Best Bets: Expert Picks, Predictions and Analysis
Falcons +3 vs. 49ers (-102)
This is one of the best spots of the NFL season so far. This will be a third consecutive home game for the Falcons. Meanwhile, San Francisco is coming off a Monday Night Football game and is now having to travel across the country on a short week. To make matters worse, the 49ers are incredibly banged up. The defensive injuries had already stacked up for the 49ers, with Nick Bosa out, and CJ West and Alfred Collins all on IR, among others. Now, San Francisco is nearly out of wide receivers. Ricky Pearsall, De’Zhaun Stribling and Deebo Samuel Sr. were already out, and now it looks as if Mike Evans might be joining them as well after after aggravating his Achilles injury against the Commanders.
The 49ers have been arguably the best team in the NFL so far this season, but it has been an exhausting few weeks. They started the season by travelling all the way to Australia. They have faced some of the league’s toughest defenses: the Rams, Broncos and Seahawks. Now, the injuries are a major problem on both sides of the ball. This cross-country road trip on a short week to face a well-rested and relatively healthy Falcons team in need of a win could be where the 49ers’ undefeated start comes to an end.
The 49ers will want to run the ball early and often with all of their wide receiver injuries. However, the Falcons rank eighth in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush and defensive rushing success rate. They should limit the 49ers’ run game, and therefore the entire offense. Meanwhile, the way to beat San Francisco’s defense is on the ground. The 49ers rank 29th in the NFL in defensive rushing success rate. That is bad news against Bijan Robinson. If the Falcons can pick up chunks on the ground whenever they want, it will be really hard for the 49ers to keep them out of the end zone. This is a great spot to back the Falcons as home underdogs.
Christian Watson Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Christian Watson is finally having the breakout season that Packers fans have been waiting for. Most importantly, Watson has been able to remain on the field. He is already less than 100 yards away from setting a career high for single-season receiving yards, and he has only played in six games so far. Watson ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yards, fifth in yards per catch and second in receiving touchdowns so far this season. He has been able to stretch the field, but has also just been a reliable option when Jordan Love needs to keep the chains moving.
Watson should keep his great run of form going against the Lions. Detroit has one of the worst passing defenses in football this season. The Lions’ defense ranks 28th in EPA/dropback, 30th in success rate and 32nd in passing yards per game allowed. Watson has torched the Lions in the past. Last season in Detroit, he went for 80 yards and a touchdown. The season prior to that, he went for 114 yards in Green Bay’s trip to Detroit. In 2023-24, Watson had 94 yards and a score in Detroit. That marks three straight seasons where Watson has 80 receiving yards or more in the Packers’ game at Ford Field.
The indoor dome conditions in Detroit are very passer-friendly. Jordan Love has had a lot of success there in the past. Also, the Lions have played in a lot of shootouts this season. They have a great offense and a bad defense. There should be a lot of possessions and points in this game, giving Watson ample opportunity to get over this number.
Six-Point Teaser: Chiefs +8.5 & Titans +7.5
The Chiefs should keep things close in Seattle. Kansas City is undefeated on the season and looking like the Chiefs of old. Patrick Mahomes has been excellent, and this Chiefs offense ranks fourth in EPA/play and success rate. Meanwhile, the Seattle offense is really struggling, ranking 22nd in success rate. A major reason for both of those figures is Kenneth Walker’s move from Seattle to Kansas City.
The Seahawks are also missing their former offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, and Seattle has no real running game. The absence of a running game has exposed some of Sam Darnold’s flaws. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense looks excellent with a healthy Mahomes and Walker toting the ball. This should be a one-score game in either direction, making the Chiefs a great teaser piece.
The Titans and Browns face off in one of the ugliest games of the weekend. The home-field advantage for the Titans, or lack of advantage for Cleveland, should make a big difference here. The Browns are 3-0 at home this season, but 1-2 on the road. The Cleveland defense has been dominant at home, but has been much more vulnerable on the road. That is a trend that goes back years at this point.
The Titans are coming off their first win of the season. Cam Ward should finally have some confidence and should be able to move the ball against the Browns. Cleveland is also just not built to blow teams out. They have four wins this season, and three of those have come by three points, with the other coming by four points. While the Titans have issues, three of their five losses this season have come by six points or fewer. Everything points to this being a close, lower-scoring game, making the Titans a great teaser piece to use.
