The Western Michigan Broncos will face the Toledo Rockets in Week 8 of college football.
Both MAC opponents enter the game at 5-2. Western Michigan has fared better in conference play, going 3-0 against MAC opponents. Toledo is 2-1 in conference play, with their lone loss coming at the hands of Buffalo.
Toledo enters as a three-point home favorite with -148 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Western Michigan holds +124 odds to pull off the road upset, while the over/under is set at 47.5 points.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 8 CFB matchup.
Western Michigan vs. Toledo Preview
Western Michigan Broncos
The Western Michigan Broncos are 5-2 and enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak. They lost early-season games to Michigan and Boise State. However, the Broncos are 3-4 against the spread, and the total has stayed under in four of their seven games.
Broc Lowry has led the offense at quarterback, completing 68% of his passes for 1,044 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception. He has also added 238 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Jalen Buckley has been another key contributor to the rushing attack, totaling 542 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
The running game has been vital to Western Michigan’s offensive production, as the Broncos are generating just 157.6 passing yards per game. Aveion Chenault has been the team’s only reliable option, recording 326 receiving yards this season.
Western Michigan averages just 25 points per game, ranking 92nd among D1 teams. They have scored as many as 49 points in a matchup but have managed just 19 total points across their two losses. Defensively, the Broncos have allowed 16.9 points per game, ranking 24th in the country. They have limited opponents to 21 or fewer points in each of their victories this year.
Toledo Rockets
The Toledo Rockets have won five of their first seven games and are 2-1 in MAC conference play. They lost to Michigan State and Buffalo. Toledo has gone 3-3-1 against the spread, and the total has gone over in five of its seven matchups so far.
Quarterback John Alan Richter has had an impressive start to the season, completing 66.1% of his passes for 1,853 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has thrown just one interception, helping the Rockets maintain an efficient passing attack. Adjatay Dabbs has emerged as his top target, catching 468 yards and five touchdowns this season. Bryson Hammer adds 367 receiving yards and two touchdowns, while Terrell Crosby Jr. and Daryl Barnett Jr. also have 199+ yards through the air.
CJ Miller and Connor Walendzak lead the rushing attack, combining for 850 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Their production gives Toledo another way to attack defenses and keeps opponents from focusing exclusively on Richter and the passing game.
As a team, the Rockets score 36.3 points per game, ranking 27th among the 138 qualifying D1 teams. They have scored 34+ points in each victory this season, and the 23-8 loss to Buffalo marks the only time they have been held below 20 points this year. Toledo has struggled defensively, ranking 67th in the country by allowing 23.6 points per game. Even so, that number is slightly inflated by the 48 points allowed in the overtime win over Temple. The Rockets have only allowed more than 24 points in one other game all year.
Western Michigan vs. Toledo Pick, Best Bet
This is a fascinating clash of styles, with Western Michigan needing to contain Toledo’s high-powered offense to have a chance. The Broncos have been effective defensively, but limited passing could become an issue if they fall behind and are forced to throw more.
Ultimately, I think Toledo’s offense will be too much to win and cover this MAC matchup. This game matters more to the Rockets, as beating the defending conference champion Broncos would greatly improve their chances of reaching the MAC championship game. The storyline may be Toledo’s offense, but the Rockets are also second in the conference in total defense. They also rank 13th in the country in EPA per pass play and 16th in defensive success rate. Facing a Western Michigan team that ranks 121st in total yards per game at 322, this is a great chance to add to these encouraging metrics.
The lack of passing production has plagued this Western Michigan team all year, and this matchup could expose it. The Broncos’ raw record is more impressive than their on-field play, with limited offensive production as a clear limiting factor. Facing a Toledo team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in conference play this season, expect the ground-game path to scoring to remain slim. Buckley and the rushing attack should remain central to the game plan, but the Rockets will look to limit those opportunities and force Lowry to make plays through the air.
Beyond this year’s implications, revenge will be on Toledo’s mind. They lost last year on a last-minute touchdown and two-point conversion to Western Michigan. With a more balanced offense and home-field advantage, Toledo can respond. Count on Toledo showcasing how they are the more balanced and effective team in this conference battle. Expect the Rockets to score at a rate Western Michigan cannot match and cover the three-point spread.
