Cincinnati coach Scott Satterfield watched his defense reach third-and-long against West Virginia, then surrender the catches and missed tackles that made the situation meaningless. His frustration was entirely warranted. Texas Tech brings quarterback Will Hammond and running back J’Koby Williams to Saturday’s noon Homecoming game at Nippert Stadium, where the Bearcats must defend two ways of getting embarrassed. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
Williams ripped Arizona State for 165 yards on just 11 carries. Hammond repeatedly found receiver Kenny Johnson, who caught seven passes for 120 yards, while wideout Coy Eakin gives Tech another established target. Cincinnati already struggled to divide its attention against Arizona: the Wildcats rushed for 238 yards and converted nine of 14 third downs. Satterfield has acknowledged that difficulty. Williams can make the Bearcats tackle in space, and Hammond has receivers to punish them when they devote extra defenders to stopping him.
Tech coach Joey McGuire nevertheless received plenty of help during last week’s 53-point eruption. The Red Raiders started touchdown possessions at Arizona State’s 33, 39 and 25, and their defense scored, too. Cincinnati should force them to travel farther. Hammond managed only 134 passing yards at Colorado, where Tech converted three of 12 third downs. McGuire cannot rely on another afternoon of gifts.
Hammond has already led touchdown marches of 75, 80, 75 and 87 yards against Houston. Satterfield needs his defenders to finish a tackle after forcing those long third downs. They repeatedly failed to do that at West Virginia. Cincinnati must tackle Williams, then contest catches from Johnson and Eakin when Hammond throws. I expect Tech to reach the high thirties even after accounting for fewer short fields.
Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati pick, best bet
Bearcats quarterback JC French IV will have to answer through his receivers. Tech has allowed only 2.9 yards per rush this season and held Arizona State to 35 net rushing yards. Cincinnati running back Cole Tabb gained 118 on the ground at West Virginia, but his 51 receiving yards matter here, too. French can continue throwing to him when Tech contests the handoffs. Receiver Malachi Henry caught a 69-yarder last week, while wideout JV Gibson caught seven passes during French’s superb 389-yard, three-touchdown afternoon.
Arizona smothered that offense for seven points and 227 yards earlier this month. I expect Tech to force some similarly ugly possessions when Tabb gets stopped. French has yet to throw an interception this season, though, and Houston showed how to sustain catches against the Red Raiders while gaining 458 yards and converting nine of 15 third downs.
With dry weather forecast, French can reach Henry downfield and throw to Tabb when the handoffs fail. Hammond gets the more forgiving defense, but Cincinnati should make him spend the afternoon answering. I’ll play over 56.5.
Best bet: Over 56.5 (-115).
Projected score: Texas Tech 38, Cincinnati 24.
Best Bet: Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech o56.5 total points scored (-115)
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