Kicking off today’s UFC 333 Main Card is an intriguing bout between two rising Featherweights, No. 11 Aaron Pico and Losene Keita. Pico was originally slated to face Arnold Allen on this card, but Keita stepped up on short notice after Allen couldn’t fight due to an injury. Today’s UFC 333 event features two title fights: Alexander Volkanovski defends the Featherweight Championship against Movsar Evloev, and Petr Yan puts his 135-pound title on the line against Merab Dvalishvili.
Check out my best bet for Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita at UFC 333 below.
Aaron Pico to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-130)
Pico, 30, has a 14-5 record with 11 finishes and is 1-1 in the UFC. At UFC 327 in April, Pico picked up his first UFC win against Patricio Pitbull. Pico fought in Bellator/PFL from 2017 to 2024, going 13-4. Since 2020, Pico has gone 10-2 in his previous 12 contests with seven finishes.
Keita is another supremely talented UFC newcomer who is coming off a big first-round knockout over Muhammad Naimov in September. Before Keita made his UFC debut in March, he had a successful career in Oktagon, a popular European MMA promotion. Keita went 10-1 with six knockouts in Oktagon MMA and won their Featherweight Championship.
For this bout, Keita has a two-inch reach advantage (72″ vs. 70″) and is slightly taller (5’9″ vs. 5’8″) than Pico. Across both fighters’ first two UFC appearances, Pico is averaging more significant strikes per minute (6.16 vs. 3.91) with better striking accuracy (53% vs. 46%) while absorbing fewer strikes (3.11 vs. 3.97).
In this fight, Pico is a -125 favorite, while Keita is a +105 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. This fight has an over/under of 2.5 rounds, with the over at -180 and the under at +140. Also, this bout is +165 to go the distance and -220 to not last the scheduled 15 minutes.
With two aggressive fighters, each with 11 career finishes, an exciting and entertaining contest is all but guaranteed. Although Pico has had fast starts in the past, he showed a more patient style against Pitbull, breaking him down over 15 minutes. Both fighters are excellent strikers, but Pico has the biggest advantage in this fight with his ground game. Pico lands 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50 percent rate. If Pico can mix in takedowns to keep Keita from getting into a rhythm on the feet, he should find success. I foresee Pico either dominating on the ground en route to a decision or scoring a finish via ground-and-pound. 12 of Pico’s 14 MMA victories have come by knockout or decision. Also, Pico’s previous six wins have come by knockout or decision. You can get Pico at -130 to win by KO/TKO/DQ or decision.
Stats provided by UFC Stats.
