Prediction, pick for Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev at UFC 333

Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski defends the UFC Featherweight Championship against Movsar Evloev in the Main Event of today’s UFC 333 event at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The UFC 333 Main Card begins at 2:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Check out my best bet for the UFC 333 Main Event below.

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (-108)

Alexander Volkanovski recently turned 38 and is now set for his 12th straight UFC championship fight, aiming for his seventh successful title defense. At UFC 298 in February 2024, Volkanovski suffered his second straight knockout loss, and it appeared his days at the top of the sport might be behind him. But at UFC 314 in April 2025, Volkanovski defied the odds again, defeating Diego Lopes to win the Featherweight title for a second time. 

As Volkanovski ages and adds more fights to his resume, he has continued to get counted out. But so far, Volkanovski has proved that age is just a number. Now, he faces another top-tier contender, Movsar Evloev, who is undefeated and a supremely dangerous opponent. 

Evloev enters this bout with a 20-0 record and has won seven fights by knockout or submission. Since 2019, Evloev has gone 10-0 in the UFC, with notable victories over Diego Lopes, Arnold Allen, Aljamain Sterling, and Lerone Murphy, whom he beat in his last fight in March. Evloev hasn’t always had the most exciting fights, but he’s a versatile fighter who is tough to beat. 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Evloev is a slight favorite at -112, while the reigning champion is a -108 underdog. This fight has an over/under of 4.5 rounds, with the over at -280 and the under at +210. Evloev stands one inch taller (5’7″ vs. 5’6″) and has a one-inch advantage in standing reach (72″ vs. 71″). 

Volkanovski has the clear edge on the feet, landing 5.99 significant strikes per minute at a 57 percent rate compared to Evloev’s 3.91 with a 47 percent striking accuracy. Evloev does his best work on the ground, averaging more takedowns per 15 minutes (4.78 vs. 1.63) and better takedown accuracy (52% vs. 34%) than Volkanovski. Volkanovski has 68 percent takedown defense and has done well against opponents who have tried to take him down. Even if Evloev lands takedowns in this fight, I expect Volkanovski to return to his feet quickly. If that happens, Volkanovski should be able to get the best of Evloev on the feet with his elite pace, volume, and accuracy. 

Stats provided by UFC Stats.