UCLA quarterback Ty Dieffenbach led touchdown drives of 91 and 89 yards against Wisconsin and still finished with only 17 points. He was excellent in his first FBS start, completing 22 of 33 passes for 264 yards. The Bruins also leaned on him to rescue repeated third downs. Michigan State arrives at Saturday’s Rose Bowl Homecoming with an offense whose recent improvement depends heavily on two questionable players. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UCLA Bruins and the Michigan State Spartans.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
UCLA vs. Michigan State prediction, preview
Spartans quarterback Alessio Milivojevic and running back Jaziun Patterson both carry that designation. Milivojevic completed 22 of 26 throws against Illinois, then passed for 216 yards and two touchdowns against Northwestern. Receiver Chrishon McCray scored from 53 yards last week. Milivojevic would have to make those throws against a much more demanding defense.
Backup quarterback Cam Fancher is already out. Spartans coach Pat Fitzgerald would likely turn to freshman quarterback Kayd Coffman if Milivojevic cannot play. Coffman entered late in the Wisconsin loss; Michigan State has no demonstrated passing success with him directing the offense. Patterson gained 93 yards against Illinois and 72 against Northwestern. Fitzgerald may need a freshman to throw for first downs with Patterson missing, too. Guard Ben Murawski is questionable, too.
UCLA just held Wisconsin to 66 passing yards and has allowed only 3.0 yards per rush this season. Even with Milivojevic and Patterson playing, Michigan State has to solve a front capable of leaving the quarterback in obvious passing situations. The Spartans converted three of 12 third downs against Northwestern. They could struggle desperately to string catches together with Coffman starting and Patterson absent or restricted.
Bruins coach Bob Chesney will continue with Dieffenbach after starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s severe leg injury required surgery. Receiver Semaj Morgan caught five passes for 84 yards against Wisconsin, helping UCLA convert 13 of 20 third downs. Dieffenbach also drove 84 yards for a field goal. He has already shown the patience to go the length of the field; Chesney’s backs owe him more help.
Michigan State vs. UCLA pick, best bet
Running back Wayne Knight scraped out 23 yards on 13 carries last week. Michigan State held Northwestern to 134 rushing yards on 42 attempts, so Knight should have to work again. Dieffenbach gets the better opportunity through Morgan against a secondary conceding 7.7 yards per pass attempt and still depleted at cornerback. UCLA can score more freely through those catches than they did against Wisconsin.
Dieffenbach should reach Morgan often enough to win, even as Michigan State makes Knight work between the tackles. Milivojevic and Patterson would both have to return ready to attack UCLA’s stingy front and coverage; Coffman has yet to demonstrate the passing to do it. The Bruins should earn more chances to score, but their recent grinding possessions leave room for punts and field goals. I prefer under 43.5.
Best bet: Under 43.5 (-108).
Projected score: UCLA 27, Michigan State 13.
Best Bet: UCLA vs. Michigan State u43.5 total points scored (-110)
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
