The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of Six ranks. The biggest game outside of the power conferences comes in the Mountain West, but there are still plenty of other interesting contests in the Pac-12, Sun Belt and American.
One of the biggest games in the AAC comes in Annapolis, where we’ll see the Navy Midshipmen host the North Texas Mean Green. North Texas has been a massive surprise compared to preseason expectations, while Navy has been the exact opposite in comparison. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between North Texas and Navy.
North Texas is a 3-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 62.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 8 college football action at DraftKings Network.
For easy access to quick college football picks, join the CFB Committee Betting Group.
North Texas vs. Navy Prediction
There was a lot of negativity in the market surrounding North Texas heading into the season, and that sentiment was certainly not without reason. After all, the Mean Green lost nearly its entire team from a season ago, along with most of the coaching staff. With Drew Mestemaker, Eric Morris and company now at Oklahoma State, new head coach Neal Brown was left to pick up the pieces — and he’s done a tremendous job in his first season in Denton.
Even after losing a ton of talent at nearly every position group, North Texas still boasts one of the best offenses in the Group of Six. Led by quarterback Tayven Jackson (17 total touchdowns), the Mean Green rank inside the top 15 nationally in EPA per play, EPA per dropback and passing success rate. What makes this offense so successful is the ability to throw off play action, which works in large part thanks to running back Jahiem White — who is averaging over seven yards per carry on the season.
The North Texas offense can score points in bunches and I see no reason for that to slow down against a Navy defense that ranks inside the bottom 10 nationally in EPA per dropback allowed and 95th in passing success rate allowed per Game On Paper. The Mean Green are also coming off a bye week, so they’ll likely have a few extra wrinkles in the offensive game plan to further confuse a struggling Midshipmen defense that is allowing an average of 31.5 points per game in conference play.
On the other side of the ball, Navy’s offense is still an above average unit (41st in EPA per play, 29th in yards per play). However, much of that is derived from the ground game, and that is exactly what North Texas is built to stop on defense. The Mean Green are an excellent tackling unit, ranking inside the top five nationally in that department per PFF. Conversely, North Texas has struggled to defend the pass this season, but given that Navy is not an offense that will push the ball downfield, I have more confidence in the Mean Green to slow down the Midshipmen rush attack.
North Texas vs. Navy Best Bet
North Texas has been a machine on offense, and that shouldn’t change against a porous Navy pass defense. Even at home, I don’t trust the Midshipmen to keep up with an offense of this caliber. With that in mind, I’ll lay the points with the Mean Green in this AAC matchup.