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Prediction, pick for Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 at UFC 333

Prediction, pick for Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 at UFC 333

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By: Cooper Albers

The crowning MMA card of 2026 arrives in Abu Dhabi this weekend. In the co-main event of UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, the bantamweight title is on the line in an epic trilogy clash between champion Petr Yan and former champion Merab Dvalishvili. 

Yan (20–5 MMA, 12–4 UFC) reclaimed the 135-pound throne with a stunning unanimous-decision win (49–46, 2x; 48–47) over the former champ at UFC 323 last December. Dvalishvili (21–5 MMA, 14–3 UFC) will attempt to recapture the belt after suffering his first pro loss since 2018. 

Yan enters as a -148 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dvalishvili is a +124 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 4.5 rounds.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 Fight Preview

Petr Yan (C)

  • 20–5 (12–4 UFC)
  • 7–0 (T)KO
  • 1–0 SUB

Petr Yan is riding high after staging one of the most impressive title upsets in UFC history. As a heavy underdog who got ragdolled in their first fight, “No Mercy” looked like a completely different fighter in his second dance with dominant champion Merab Dvalishvili. With timely jabs, devastating body shots, and impregnable takedown defense, Yan neutralized his opponent’s signature wrestling pressure—while mixing in his own offensive grappling in a tactical masterpiece. 

Naturally, the 33-year-old Russian will look to do the same thing in Saturday’s trilogy fight. He’s got the blueprint, and he’s got the momentum. Still, Yan will face a rested, hungrier version of Dvalishvili, who will undoubtedly make adjustments. Also of note, Yan underwent nine-hour back surgery in January — a serious question mark heading into UFC 333.

Merab Dvalishvili (#1)

  • 21–5 (14–3 UFC)
  • 3–0 (T)KO
  • 2–1 SUB

“The Machine” is heading back to the drawing board after getting deactivated by Petr Yan. Merab Dvalishvili’s relentless forward pressure, fueled by his bottomless gas tank, proved ineffective the second time around — he got stuffed on nearly every takedown attempt and picked apart on the feet. 

But Dvalishvili, one of the most active champions in recent memory, may have simply run out of steam in his fourth title defense of 2025. The 35-year-old Georgian had gone five hard-fought rounds with Cory Sandhagen just two months earlier. With 10 months to recharge for UFC 333, Merab will look to run the same suffocating game plan that helped him score 50–45 on all three scorecards over Yan in March 2023.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Pick, Best Bet

This one’s tricky. Petr Yan was brilliant in December but may struggle to repeat it, especially after recent serious surgery. And though Merab Dvalishvili will be as rested as ever, his latest performance doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in a bounce back at 35. 

That said, Saturday’s co-main event pits two bantamweights in a league of their own — with past fights that have been lopsided in either direction. With that in mind, there’s solid value in backing Merab, who not long ago seemed unbeatable, to reclaim the throne as a plus-money underdog.

Best Bet: Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline (+124)

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Cooper is a Brooklyn-based writer and editor who joined DraftKings in September 2025. A recent graduate of Jay-Z’s Roc Nation School of Sports at Long Island University, he served as the chief sports editor of the campus newspaper and the lead sideline reporter for the men’s basketball team. His previous stops include amNewYork and the New York Post.
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