USC faces Penn State on Saturday 10/10/26 at 7:30pm ET. in PSU’s annual White Out game. Penn State is priced as a short 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The total sits at 54.5. Here’s my prediction and best bet for the matchup.
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| Spread | Penn State -1.5 |
| Moneyline | Penn State -120/USC +100 |
| Total | 54.5 |
| Prediction | Penn State 27 – USC 24 |
| Best Bet | Penn State Moneyline (-120) |
USC vs. Penn State prediction
Neither of these teams are off to the start they wanted to have, but at least USC is sitting at 5-1 in the standings. Penn State has been the larger disappointment, at 3-2 without a win over a Power 4 team. Turns out we learned nothing in blowout wins over Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. Matt Campbell did not have his team ready to go against Wisconsin and Northwestern.
Despite jumping out to a 17-0 lead at home over the Badgers, Penn State collapsed and lost the game. Then it went on the road on a Friday night to open Northwestern’s new stadium and got absolutely pounded. It was ugly. Now PSU gets the long week to prepare for a huge night game against the Trojans. The crowd and the energy will be at its best for the White Out game. If Penn State can win this game, the season is back on. If it losses, morale will be about as low as it was when James Franklin got fired a year ago.
We will see Penn State’s best effort on Saturday night. Particularly after how Northwestern manhandled this PSU roster last week, you’d think the Nittany Lions will bring the physicality this week. That plays well into a matchup with a USC team that wants to make it more of a track meet.
We saw that when the Trojans came east last month. They’ve played five home games, but went to New Jersey to face Rutgers and nearly lost the game. USC escaped with a 42-35 win with a 99-yard pick-six being the different in the game. Looking shaky on the road is nothing new for the Trojans under Lincoln Riley. Since 2023, the program is 3-13 ATS in road games.
USC is also a little beat up at the moment, with four key starters listed as true game-time decisions. Does it feel great backing Penn State after what we’ve seen the last two weeks? Nope. But I’m putting a little bit of blind faith behind this one. When the lights come on tonight, I’m expecting a physical effort by the home team, and a rattle Trojans squad.
USC vs. Penn State best bet
CFB Pick: Penn State ML (-120)
For all of my college football best bets this week, check out my CFB cheat sheet on DraftKings Network.
