Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson and freshman Jesse Legree have made Oregon State’s passing game a delight. On Legree’s 52-yard touchdown at Colorado State, he caught Atkinson’s pass barely beyond the line of scrimmage and did the rest himself. First-year coach JaMarcus Shephard returns to Reser Stadium with three straight wins. San Diego State just snapped three straight losses, though their offense contributed little to beating Texas State. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Oregon State Beavers and the San Diego State Aztecs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Oregon State vs. SDSU prediction, preview
Demetrius Sumler inherited only one returning defensive starter, and bracketing Legree ought to be among his first instructions. The Aztecs must tackle the short catch, too. Kai Wallin can complicate Atkinson’s reads: he intercepted Texas State by dropping into coverage when Brad Jackson expected man defense. Djibril Rahman and Alijah Lash also combined for three sacks Saturday. Sumler needs another disruptive afternoon. Oregon State has allowed only seven sacks through five games, and Atkinson has thrown just two interceptions; another gift near the goal line will be harder to extract.
Josiah Lucas earned his 111 rushing yards against Texas State on 21 carries. I liked that persistence from a freshman playing while Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard were hurt. Both remain questionable, and Oregon State just conceded 188 rushing yards on 29 carries at Colorado State. Sean Lewis should give his backs substantial work. Yet Lucas’s touchdown drives covered just ten and seven yards; turnovers and special teams supplied the field position. Jaylon Hawkins has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns this season. His speed can produce another cheap scoring chance.
Jayden Denegal must sustain more of the drives that start deeper. SDSU converted only one of ten third downs Saturday; Denegal has averaged a meager 5.8 yards per pass attempt through five games. Slot receiver Nate Acevedo is doubtful, but tight end Jackson Ford is probable. Lewis ought to call short passes to Ford when Oregon State crowds the runs. Takari Hickle has recorded 7.5 tackles for loss, including 3.5 sacks, through five games. A stalled run can bring him after Denegal. SDSU has started four line combinations in five games, with center Isaac Lucas still questionable. Saturday’s 3 p.m. Pacific kickoff marks Oregon State’s first rebuilt Pac-12 home game. Wallin has prepared teammates for Reser’s third-down noise; replacement blockers must sort protection calls amid it.
SDSU vs. Oregon State pick, best bet
Mitch Dahlen ought to call throws to Eric Olsen when Sumler sends help toward Legree. Olsen caught nine passes for 65 yards against Colorado State, including touchdowns from five and eight yards. AJ Newberry converted third-and-three before the first one, advancing the Beavers close enough for Atkinson to throw short to Olsen. Dahlen should work that pairing near the goal line. Oregon State has finished 16 of 21 red-zone visits with touchdowns through five games, and I expect Olsen to help turn those drives into seven points. I’ll lay 16.5.
Best bet: Oregon State -16.5 (-108).
Projected score: Oregon State 38, San Diego State 17.
Best Bet: Oregon State -16.5 (-110) vs. San Diego State
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