It all comes down to this: Game 5 of the ALDS. The White Sox gained an early 2-0 advantage in this series, looking poised for their first ALCS appearance in over 20 years. However, the Guardians managed to fight back. Cleveland saved its season with two straight wins on the road, outscoring Chicago 18-8 in the process. Now, these two AL Central rivals will battle it out one last time. Which club will come out on top this evening at Progressive Field?
The Guardians are favorites (-143) over the White Sox; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s ALDS showdown between Chicago and Cleveland on DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Guardians pick, best bet today
- White Sox ML (+118): Chicago has looked brutal over the past two games, but momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher. In that regard, the South Siders have a clear edge on the mound with a fully-rested Burke against Cleveland’s mediocre lineup. Williams is a quality arm in his own right, but he’s on short rest against one of the league’s most dangerous lineups. As a result, the White Sox offer more value for bettors tonight.
White Sox vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Sean Burke gets the nod for the visitors, making his third appearance of the postseason (3.86 ERA). During Game 2 of the ALDS, the right-hander tossed 5.1 innings of one-hit, one-run ball. It’s been a stellar 2026 campaign from the 26-year-old. Through 172.1 innings pitched during the regular season, he’s recorded a 3.34 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 185 strikeouts (9.7 K/9). It’s worth noting that Chicago’s hurler has performed better on the road (2.58 ERA) than at home (3.86 ERA). Burke’s most notable weakness is command, evidenced by his 46th percentile walk rate (8.7%). If he manages to find the strike zone, good results should follow.
The Guardians have been heating up at the plate, tallying nine runs in each of their last two contests. Granted, this group wasn’t an offensive juggernaut during the regular season. They averaged just 4.21 runs per game, seventh-worst in the majors. To make matters worse, this has been a difficult matchup. Burke has allowed three earned runs combined over his previous four meetings with Cleveland, including the postseason (1.19 ERA). The third-year pro has utilized a curveball or slider on over a third of his pitches. Guardians hitters are only batting .226 against those offerings this season.
As for the home team, Gavin Williams gets the nod tonight. During the regular season, he recorded a 3.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and AL-best 248 strikeouts (12.1 K/9) over 32 starts. However, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt sent the big righty to the mound for an inning of relief during Game 4. Keeping that in mind, don’t expect more than three, maybe four frames from Williams this evening. The 27-year-old hasn’t excelled in this spot, either. He’s on the hook for a 4.72 ERA over seven career appearances vs. Chicago. With that being said, Vogt will have several intriguing options at his disposal. As a unit, the Guardians own the league’s sixth-best bullpen ERA (3.54).
Even for a Cleveland squad that prioritizes pitching, this will be a difficult matchup. The White Sox are loaded with impact hitters, headlined by sluggers Munetaka Murakami and Miguel Vargas. This group ranked fifth in runs scored (776), fifth in home runs (211) and eighth in slugging percentage (.406) during the regular season. Williams, for all his positives as a starter, does give up the occasional long ball (1.4 HR/9). While there was a day of rest for both teams, the Guardians made 15 combined pitching changes during Games 3 and 4. Of the 12 pitchers on Cleveland’s postseason roster, five are left-handed. Chicago batters own the league’s sixth-best OPS against southpaws this season (.750).
Best Bet: White Sox ML (+118)
Chicago’s pitching staff is top-heavy, lacking in depth compared to other contenders. Fortunately for the South Siders, Burke has been one of the AL’s best arms this season. To boot, he’s been nothing short of exceptional against Cleveland. The Guardians, despite Game 3 and 4 triumphs, don’t inspire much confidence at the plate. They also come into this one with a more worn-out pitching staff. At plus money, the White Sox offer more value as road ‘dogs this evening.
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