College football season grinds on, and we have some great primetime matchups on the board in Week 6.
I’m publishing three plays early in the week on Monday, and will update throughout the week. Be sure to check back for adds and updates.
Iowa at Washington (Friday – 9pm ET)
I’ve discussed and written about this Iowa team a lot this season. When the Hawkeyes are out of their weight class when it comes to their opponent, there’s not much they can do. Dating back to 2017, Iowa was on a 0-7 ATS skid when priced as a double digit underdog. We saw that opportunity present itself this past weekend with the Hawkeyes hosting the Buckeyes. The trend held true. Iowa lost the game 31-14, dropping to 0-8 ATS as a big underdog.
However, when priced as a short underdog, Iowa is a completely different animal. Over the past two seasons, when the Hawkeyes are a single digit underdog, they are 5-0-1 ATS, including an outright win at Michigan prior to the Ohio State game. I feel those recent numbers hold more weight, but this program has been tremendous as a short underdog for years now. In regular season games that Iowa is priced a single digit underdog, the Hawkeyes are on a 12-1-1 ATS run since 2021. Now we get a motivated Iowa team off a loss, with a huge coaching advantage in favor of Kirk Ferentz.
Washington had its hands full this past week as well, playing a road game at USC. The Huskies got their first cover of the season, but lost the game outright by a final score of 25-21. Washington’s offense was held relatively in check, and only scored seven points in the second half against a Trojan’s defense that’s extremely lacking. In the three games prior to hosting the Huskies, USC was giving up more than 35 points per game on average. The 41 points by a high-powered Oregon offense can be explained, but giving up 35 to Rutgers and 30 to Louisiana cannot.
If the USC defense could hold Demond Williams to less than 200 passing yards, Iowa should really be able to scheme some things up to slow this offense down. The loss to USC dropped the Huskies to 0-2 in Big Ten play, and this is looking like one of the more overrated teams in the country. Washington is 0-4 ATS as the favorite this season, with some ugly performances — evident by failing to cover by 15.4 points per game. The Huskies beat Washington State by 14 points and Utah State by just two points at home. That magical home field advantage in Seattle appears to be gone, evident by the win we saw Minnesota get there a couple of weeks ago as a double digit underdog.
Terrific spot to back the Hawkeyes as an underdog, despite the spread moving in Washington’s favor. You can play a +3 for near even money, but I decided to pay a bit more for the hook on a key number.
CFB Pick: Iowa +3.5 (-125)
UCLA at Oregon (Saturday – 3:30pm ET)
A couple of the most electric offenses in the country meet on Saturday afternoon in Eugene, and I’m expecting this one to live up to the hype. The Ducks are a top-20 offense in terms of points per game nationally, averaging over 35 per game against FBS competition — yes, that tosses out the 84 points against Portland State. We saw zero regression when Dylan Raiola stepped in for Dante Moore prior to the bye week at USC. The offense might have even improved when the former Nebraska QB stepped in, and the Ducks now have has a bye week to continue to grow the offense.
UCLA has been even better offensively, thanks to Bob Chesney at the helm. The Bruins are averaging 44.8 points per game, and have gone for 52 and 54 points in their first two Big Ten games against Purdue and Maryland. Obviously, this is a step up in competition going to Oregon, but this is also the best offense the Ducks have seen.
Make no mistake about it, Oregon has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Ducks rank just inside of the top-100 with 31 points per game allowed to FBS competition. That includes 27 points to USC and Boise State, along with 39 points in the loss at Oklahoma State — and you could argue those teams left points on the table.
UCLA ranks second nationally in rushing yards per game at 281.5, behind only West Virginia. That matchup should present a problem for an Oregon defense that’s been very average defending the run. The Bruins have no problem getting into a shootout, though, and we saw them give up 38 points to Purdue recently in conference play.
Both teams enter Week 6 off a bye, so they should be healthy, fresh and have plenty of offense schemed up for this one. I’ll back the total to go over in what should be an exciting shootout.
CFB Pick: OVER 59.5 (-108) – 1.5-units
Georgia at Alabama (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
We’ve had some tremendous matchups so far this college football season. Ohio State at Texas and LSU at Ole Miss jump out as two that I was most excited for, and both of them lived up to the hype. This might be the one I’m most excited for.
No. 6 Alabama continues to climb the rankings, and will host No. 2 Georgia on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Both of these teams have been absolute wagons, and faced very little adversity this season. Alabama took good punches from Kentucky and Florida State early in games, but turned both of them into blowouts. Georgia has been on cruise control against lesser competition. That changes on Saturday in this heavyweight showdown.
We’ve seen a flip of favorites in this one. ‘Bama was +3 on the lookahead line, but quickly became a favorite when the lines opened back up this week. It’s hard to argue with the move. The Crimson Tide are a bit more proven so far this season. Kalen DeBoer has won both of his regular season matchups against Kirby Smart, and it is a bit of a revenge spot for the Tide, following a 28-7 loss to the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game back in December.
I lean to Alabama in the game, but think the stronger play is on the total. We tend to think defense with these two programs, but the offenses are the two best units in this game. Georgia comes in averaging 51.4 points per game overall, and 48.5 points per game against FBS schools. That ranks second in the country … behind? Yes, Alabama, which averages 49.6 through their five FBS games.
Even taking out games against Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, Georgia is averaging 41.3 points in three SEC games. That includes 41 points against an Oklahoma defense that’s among the best in the country. Alabama hasn’t scored fewer than 45 points in a game this season. The Tide are averaging exactly 50 points in their three SEC games, fresh off dropping 56 in Starkville on Saturday afternoon.
So the question becomes this — can these offenses still perform at a high level against these strong defenses? I believe they can. Georgia has the better defense of the two, giving up 16 points per game. However, it’s yet to really be tested by anything close to this ‘Bama attack. The Tide are giving up 20.8 points per game, but we saw FSU go for 36, and Mississippi State was able to score 23, despite tons of critical mistakes. Even if we see some mistakes offensively in this one, both defenses are good enough to turn those mistakes into points of their own.
Keelon Russell has been electric for ‘Bama, and once he got a couple of starts under his belt, took his game to another level. Over the last three weeks, Russell has racked up 970 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns without an interception, completing over 75% of his passes. He’s also run for a touchdown in all three games.
Meanwhile, Gunner Stockton is a veteran for the Bulldogs. He hasn’t been asked to do as much this season with the way Georgia has been rolling, but last week we saw that he still has it when his team needs it. Stockton attempted 16 or fewer passes in each of the first three games, and just 25 against Oklahoma. Last week, Smart allowed his QB to open it up. Stockton responded by completing 25-of-32 passes against Vanderbilt, good for 295 yards and three touchdowns. Stockton is also willing and capable of using his legs to pickup key yardage.
I respect both of these defenses, but we’re talking about potentially historically good offenses on both sides. The numbers tell us that the market simply hasn’t caught up to the way these teams are scoring. The Dawgs are 5-0 to the over this season, clearing the number by 12.9 points per game. ‘Bama is also 5-0 to the over this season, clearing the number by 16.9 points per game.
The last time these teams met in Tuscaloosa was a Saturday night two years ago. Alabama won that one 41-34 in one of the most entertaining college football games you’ll see. I’m expecting a similar result this time around.
CFB Pick: OVER 54.5 (-120) – 2-units
