The Red River Rivalry will be reignited this afternoon in Dallas. #1 Texas (4-0, 1-0) is on a roll, having won four straight games prior to today’s matchup. It’s a far different story for Oklahoma (2-2, 0-1), currently falling well short of preseason expectations. If the Sooners are going to turn things around, upsetting their longtime foes would be a good start.
The Longhorns are listed as 7.5-point favorites over the Sooners, with the total set at O/U 39.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Oklahoma vs. Texas Week 6 matchup.
Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction, preview
What a mess Oklahoma’s offense has been this season. The Sooners are averaging 22.0 points and 321.3 yards per game, 15th and 16th respectively among SEC programs. Quarterback John Mateer, once seen as a potential superstar, has been ineffective so far. Through four games, he’s thrown for 883 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Although the senior can make plays with his legs, he needs to be much better through the air. It’s not as if there’s been much support for OU’s signal caller. The team is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, tied for 13th-worst among all 138 FBS schools.
Keep in mind, Oklahoma’s offensive numbers would look even worse if not for a season-opening 51-0 victory over UTEP. This group has scored a combined 37 points over its last three games, against Michigan, New Mexico and Georgia. Things won’t get any easier against one of the nation’s stingiest defenses. Texas is only giving up 271.0 yards per game, fourth-best in the SEC. It starts in the secondary, where the team has allowed just two passing touchdowns and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. The undisputed leader up front is Colin Simmons, an NFL-caliber edge rusher. He’s already racked up 7.5 sacks and 9.0 tackles for loss. When these teams met last season, Simmons notched 2.5 sacks against Mateer.
On the other side of the ball, it’s all about Arch Manning. It’s been a better showing for the quarterback during his second season as Texas’ full-time starter. During his first four outings, the junior has thrown for 862 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Granted, those aren’t eye-popping numbers. Still, on a roster this talented, the Longhorns don’t need a prolific passing game. Out of the backfield, Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown have combined for 394 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Standout wide receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo can get separation against just about everyone.
With that being said, moving the ball won’t come easy for UT. In spite of their lackluster offense, this Sooners defense is no joke. They’re not quite as dominant in 2026, but this group can still shut down any opponent. Through four contests, they’re giving up the second-fewest yards per game (238.0) and fifth-fewest points per game (16.0) in the SEC. The secondary has been formidable, allowing a conference-best 122.5 passing yards per game. Keep in mind, Manning only threw for 166 yards when these teams met last season. Even more impressive, Oklahoma is wielding college football’s second-lowest third down conversion percentage (23.08%).
Best Bet: Oklahoma vs. Texas under 39.5 points (-115)
There’s no doubt that top-ranked Texas comes into this one as the more talented squad. Still, this is a rivalry game; a blowout doesn’t appear likely. Oklahoma, if nothing else, can frustrate opposing passers. However, it’s difficult to place much trust in a Mateer-led offense at the moment. Don’t expect much scoring between the Longhorns and Sooners on Saturday afternoon.
