Felipe Franco takes on Brendson Ribeiro in a three-round Light Heavyweight contest at tonight’s UFC Fight Night Prelims. Ribeiro weighed in at 208.5 pounds, 2.5 pounds over the Light Heavyweight limit, which caused him to forfeit 20 percent of his purse. The Prelims start at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my best bet for Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro at tonight’s UFC Fight Night below.
Felipe Franco to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-185)
Franco, 25, has an 11-2 record with seven knockouts and four submissions. After his first two appearances under the UFC banner didn’t go as planned, Franco got back on track with a second-round knockout over Levi Rodrigues Jr. Franco suffered a submission loss to Freddy Vidal on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2025. After that, Franco scored two first-round finishes which earned him a UFC contract. Ribeiro has lost four straight fights and is in the midst of his longest losing streak. His last victory came in March 2025 when he beat Diyar Nurgozhay.
In this bout on DraftKings Sportsbook, Franco is a big -395 favorite, while Ribeiro is a +310 underdog. This fight has an over/under of 1.5 rounds, with the under at -175 and the over at +135. Franco is also +165 to win by knockout or submission. Ribeiro averages slightly more significant strikes per minute (2.94 vs. 2.55), but Franco has the edge in striking accuracy (57% vs. 40%) and strikes absorbed per minute (2.39 vs. 3.56). On the ground, Franco lands 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Even with two losses, Franco proved in his last fight that he’s still an extremely talented fighter who is still evolving. Franco is often tough for opponents to figure out because he has a well-rounded game and can finish with a knockout or submission at any time. Ribeiro has struggled to keep up with multiple rising prospects recently and has lost three of his last four fights by knockout or submission. All 11 of Franco’s wins have come in the first two rounds. With Franco’s aggressive, all-action style, I expect his pace to be too much for Ribeiro to handle. I’m taking Franco to win in Rounds 1-2 at -185.
