Cowboys vs. Buccaneers NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

The Cowboys are hosting the Buccaneers for Week 5’s edition of Thursday Night Football. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas is favored by 8.5 points and this game carries a total of 47.5 points.

DraftKings is offering some huge Showdown contests for this matchup. Below, I have featured two of my favorite NFL DFS value plays to consider for this Showdown slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (TB @ DAL)

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys ($9,600 CPT, $6,400 FLEX)

Ferguson has been hit-or-miss this season, scoring 2.6, 20.3, 10.3 and 4.1 FPTS in his four games, but his role has been steady and this is a great matchup for the tight end. Ferguson is running a route on 65.3% of his team’s dropbacks and he is seeing a target on 14% of his routes, including four redzone targets, three of which he has converted into a touchdown.

The Cowboys rank third in PROE and it is far easier to throw against the Buccaneers than it is to run. Tampa Bay is allowing the second-fewest yards per rush (3.2), but the 17th-most yards per pass (6.6). The Buccaneers are particularly susceptible to tight ends.

They are allowing the sixth-most yards (273), sixth-most touchdowns (3) and seventh-most catches to the position (26). Just last Sunday, Tucker Kraft finished caught 6-of-7 targets for 42 yards and a touchdown vs. Tampa Bay, resulting in 16.5 FPTS, which is by far the tight end’s best outing of the season.

Ferguson brings similar upside tonight and rostering him as your captain has merit in this spot, which should naturally make your lineup contrarian.

WR Tez Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,300 CPT, $2,200 FLEX)

Johnson saw a big increase to his role last week. The receiver ran a route on 50% of his team’s dropbacks after peaking with a 35% route rate through the first three weeks. Johnson only saw two targets, but he hauled in both looks for 17 yards vs. the Packers (4.7 FPTS).

If Johnson continues to run a route on around half his team’s dropbacks, there is definitely hope he can have a solid performance tonight. This season, Johnson is leading the Buccaneers with 1.54 YPPR and he is garnering a target on a strong 18% of his routes.

Last season, Johnson saw a route rate of at least 40% in eight games and averaged 9.0 FPTS on those occasions, including four outings of double-digit FPTS. Johnson is a capable receiver and this is an elite matchup vs. the Cowboys. Dallas is giving up the second-most yards per pass (8.2) and the club ranks eighth in pace.

The Buccaneers should throw it a ton as 8.5-point underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook and Johnson has the potential to easily outperform his cheap price tag.