Iowa faces Washington on Friday 10/9/26 at 9pm ET. Washington has shifted around between a 2.5 to 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 41.5. Here’s my prediction and best bet for the matchup.
For easy access to quick CFB picks, join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sports.
| Spread | Washington -3 |
| Moneyline | Washington -148/Iowa +124 |
| Total | 41.5 |
| Prediction | Iowa 23 – Washington 17 |
| Best Bet | Iowa +3.5 (-125) |
Iowa vs. Washington prediction
I’ve discussed and written about this Iowa team a lot this season. When the Hawkeyes are out of their weight class when it comes to their opponent, there’s not much they can do. Dating back to 2017, Iowa was on a 0-7 ATS skid when priced as a double digit underdog. We saw that opportunity present itself this past weekend with the Hawkeyes hosting the Buckeyes. The trend held true. Iowa lost the game 31-14, dropping to 0-8 ATS as a big underdog.
However, when priced as a short underdog, Iowa is a completely different animal. Over the past two seasons, when the Hawkeyes are a single digit underdog, they are 5-0-1 ATS, including an outright win at Michigan prior to the Ohio State game. I feel those recent numbers hold more weight, but this program has been tremendous as a short underdog for years now. In regular season games that Iowa is priced a single digit underdog, the Hawkeyes are on a 12-1-1 ATS run since 2021. Now we get a motivated Iowa team off a loss, with a huge coaching advantage in favor of Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz has been tremendous off a loss over the years, going 6-2 ATS in the next game following losses in the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Washington had its hands full this past week as well, playing a road game at USC. The Huskies got their first cover of the season, but lost the game outright by a final score of 25-21. Washington’s offense was held relatively in check, and only scored seven points in the second half against a Trojan’s defense that’s extremely lacking. In the three games prior to hosting the Huskies, USC was giving up more than 35 points per game on average. The 41 points by a high-powered Oregon offense can be explained, but giving up 35 to Rutgers and 30 to Louisiana cannot.
If the USC defense could hold Demond Williams to less than 200 passing yards, Iowa should really be able to scheme some things up to slow this offense down. The loss to USC dropped the Huskies to 0-2 in Big Ten play, and this is looking like one of the more overrated teams in the country. Washington is 0-4 ATS as the favorite this season, with some ugly performances — evident by failing to cover by 15.4 points per game. The Huskies beat Washington State by 14 points and Utah State by just two points at home. That magical home field advantage in Seattle appears to be gone, evident by the win we saw Minnesota get there a couple of weeks ago as a double digit underdog. Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last five at Husky Stadium.
Terrific spot to back the Hawkeyes as an underdog, despite the spread moving in Washington’s favor. You can play a +3 for near even money, but I decided to pay a bit more for the hook on a key number.
Iowa vs. Washington best bet
Best Bet: Iowa +3.5 (-125)
For all of my college football best bets this week, check out my CFB cheat sheet on DraftKings Network.
