Mike Norvell has Florida State winning again, with Ashton Daniels running past Virginia for a school-record five touchdowns Saturday. The Seminoles head to Louisville at 3–2 after consecutive wins. Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals have lost three games by a field goal, the latest after gaining 485 yards at NC State and fumbling away three possessions. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Louisville Cardinals and the Florida State Seminoles.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Louisville vs. FSU prediction, preview
Daniels keeps reading the end on the handoff to Ousmane Kromah, who has averaged a sturdy 5.9 yards per carry through five games. Chase Kromah inside, and Daniels keeps the ball outside; he scored from 81 yards Saturday. Brohm may need a safety closer to tackle those runners, leaving Duce Robinson alone with a corner. NC State just threw for 373 yards against Louisville.
Daniels still missed Robinson deep on successive plays against Virginia. Texas transfer Quintrevion Wisner took a screen 48 yards, and Micahi Danzy caught a 33-yard throw; together, those completions supplied nearly half of Daniels’ 183 yards on 19 attempts. Norvell can keep making Louisville tackle Wisner underneath. Brohm plans to simplify coverage calls, with safety Koen Entringer probable after missing two games. Daniels still has to decipher those defenders after throwing six interceptions through five games. His blockers have surrendered 12 sacks after Florida State lost six regular contributors from their line. Cover the quick throw, and Clev Lubin can hurry Daniels while he searches deeper.
Tre Richardson makes Louisville dangerous on short throws, too. He juked his way to a 38-yard touchdown at NC State, gaining 35 yards after the catch, and finished with eight catches for 117. Brohm can keep Richardson working underneath and send Lawayne McCoy deeper when Florida State’s safeties squeeze those catches. The Seminoles have conceded a costly 7.8 yards per attempt this season; Lincoln Kienholz averaged 8.5 on 30 throws Saturday, leading three touchdown drives that covered at least 77 yards.
FSU vs. Louisville pick, best bet
Isaac Brown can give Brohm no choice but to call runs if he gets hot. He gained 125 yards on nine carries Saturday, including a 70-yard touchdown; Keyjuan Brown’s questionable status may leave Isaac with more work. Kienholz, listed probable, needs those yards early after Harvey Dyson sacked him untouched on Louisville’s final third down. Tackle Cason Henry remains questionable. Rylan Kennedy should disrupt longer throws after recording two of Florida State’s ten sacks against Virginia. Norvell praised sharper counter moves and coordinated twists. I expect Kienholz to challenge that improvement: the Seminoles had only seven sacks in four games before facing Virginia’s struggling passing attack.
Florida State has finished an imposing 17 of 21 red-zone visits with touchdowns. I expect Daniels and Kromah to get them four Friday. Kienholz and Isaac should get Louisville four, too. Kennedy and Lubin should still force punts. Florida State has allowed just six touchdowns on 13 red-zone visits; I expect Carson Hilbert to finish two Louisville drives with field goals and Gabe Panikowski to finish one for Florida State. That gets me to 65. I’ll take over 59.5.
Best bet: Over 59.5 (-105).
Projected score: Louisville 34, Florida State 31.
Best Bet: Louisville vs. Florida State o59.5 total points scored (-105)
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