Kevin O’Connell keeps winning with an offense that still stalls. Minnesota has reached 4–0, although Will Reichard supplied all 15 points against Miami Sunday, the second game this season the Vikings finished without an offensive touchdown. Kellen Moore needs his defenders to wrap up. New Orleans slipped to 1–3 Monday as Atlanta’s backs ran through missed tackles and abandoned gaps. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Saints vs. Vikings prediction, preview
Aaron Jones ought to get another long afternoon of carries. He ground out 94 yards on 20 attempts against Miami, and the Saints missed an appalling 19 tackles against Atlanta. Brandon Staley was already patching his front without Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings; their availability Sunday remains unsettled. O’Connell has found some blocking help of his own. With Josh Oliver on injured reserve, rookie lineman Caleb Tiernan reported eligible and helped clear running lanes and protect on play action.
Kyler Murray kept coming back to T.J. Hockenson Sunday, and Miami never took him away. Hockenson caught all 13 passes thrown his way for 119 yards; on the last, he gave up a probable touchdown so Minnesota could kneel out the win. Murray completed 12 of 13 fourth-quarter throws, too. He’s starting to work through the coverage with some patience, although Miami never had to defend a pass traveling 20-plus yards. I’d keep throwing underneath against Staley. O’Connell still needs Addison to draw defenders deeper as he patches Murray’s protection.
That became harder Sunday. Guard Donovan Jackson’s knee injury probably ends his season, and Joe Huber takes over. Ryan Van Demark would start beside him if left tackle Christian Darrisaw remains in concussion protocol. Staley should send Chase Young after those replacements. With Justin Jefferson’s ankle still threatening another absence, Murray may have to pick his way downfield with shorter throws.
Vikings vs. Saints pick, best bet
I’d just bet Tyler Shough and the Saints’ passing offense has a bounceback game, here, and does its best to to challenge Minnesota downfield. Especially against the Flores blitzes. Shough has started laboring for his yards, though. He averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt against Las Vegas, then 6.0 Monday when Atlanta hit him 12 times and buried the Saints at home. Chris Olave still caught eight passes for 116 yards against Atlanta, and I expect Shough to keep looking for him downfield. Juwan Johnson can punish Flores’ blitzes underneath. Through three games, the Saints finished an imposing nine of 11 red-zone visits with touchdowns, three caught by Johnson. Noah Fant caught three more but missed Monday injured; Moore may have to finish those drives through Johnson.
I expect two Saints touchdowns. But New Orleans labored through 19 carries for just 50 yards Monday; if Kamara stalls again, Asim Richards has to block Turner and Van Ginkel on third-and-long. Jones and Hockenson should carry Minnesota to two touchdowns. Young can still force Murray into field goals; I expect Reichard to make three. I’ll lay 1.5 on a Minnesota field-goal win.
Best bet: Vikings -1.5 (-115).
Projected score: Vikings 23, Saints 20
