Last season, the Cleveland Browns took until November 23 to pick up their third win of the regular season, a point at which they’d already cycled through three almost equally unsuccessful starting quarterbacks. In 2026, it’s taken them just four weeks, as they’ve erased fourth-quarter deficits in each of the last three weeks to lead the AFC North at 3-1.
Cleveland has a solid opportunity to move to 4-1 on Sunday, when it travels for a 1 p.m. ET matchup with the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. The Jets are 1-3.
New York is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 39.5. The Browns are +110 on the Moneyline.
Browns vs. Jets prediction, preview
After starting with a 34-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in which it looked utterly hapless, Cleveland took advantage of a light portion of the schedule to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, and Pittsburgh Steelers in rapid succession, chasing its first division title since its resurrection in 1999. The Browns entered the season widely expected to pick among the top five in next summer’s NFL Draft, but they’re firmly in the early playoff picture now. The Jets, who were also projected as fodder to start the season, opened up their season with the win over the Tennessee Titans before losing in somewhat competitive fashion to the NFC North’s three playoff teams from last season.
Cleveland’s offense, while still below-average overall, has looked better with each successive week. After missing most of the 2024 and the entire 2025 season while recovering from multiple Achilles surgeries, Deshaun Watson has completed 69.6% of his passes for six touchdowns and two interceptions, putting some space between himself and Shedeur Sanders in the team quarterback competition. The Browns’ running game hasn’t meaningfully improved since last season, as Quinshon Judkins has been among the league’s worst by rushing yards over expectation per attempt, but rookie wide receiver duo Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion have impressed, with Boston ranking second in yards after the catch over expectation per reception.
New York has had a pretty good secondary. Despite trading away former All-Pro Sauce Gardner last season and becoming the first team in modern NFL history not to record an interception all season, the Jets have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards on the sixth-fewest net yards per attempt, though they’ve only recorded one pick. Cornerback Brandon Stephens has enjoyed a bounce-back season after struggling mightily in 2025, former All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made a strong impression after joining the team via an offseason trade, and second overall pick David Bailey has already managed a pair of sacks. New York hasn’t been quite as good against the run, as the Chicago Bears gashed it for 232 yards on the ground in Week 4, but the Bears have gashed everyone.
On the other hand, the Jets haven’t gotten much going offensively, ranking eighth-to-last in points. Geno Smith has brought much-needed stability but not much else, leading the league in completion percentage and not throwing an interception but providing next to nothing as a runner and taking too many sacks. New York’s running game has also been extremely poor, ranking sixth-to-last in yards and third-to-last in yards per attempt, and Breece Hall’s missing a second straight game certainly won’t help, as Braelon Allen managed just 59 total rushing yards against Chicago. Rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq and third-year wideout Isaiah Williams have shown some flashes, but the Jets could use Adonai Mitchell back after he impressed in the first two weeks.
Cleveland’s defense, which features playmakers like edge rusher Jared Verse and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger, is a pretty tough test. The Browns have allowed the ninth-most passing yards and sixth-most passing scores, but they’ve also intercepted four passes and held opposing passers to the 12th-fewest net yards per attempt. By Pro Football Focus’ standards, Denzel Ward has been the league’s best corner this season. Cleveland has also been solid against the run, ranking near the league average in total yards and being the only team not to give up a rushing touchdown in the first four weeks. The Browns are still gettable on a per-play basis, in part as a result of missing the fourth-most tackles, but they’ve definitely made progress.
Browns vs. Jets pick, best bet
Cleveland’s 3-1 record definitely overstates how good it is, as its minus-14 point differential leaves it with just a 1.6-2.4 expected record. The Browns’ schedule hasn’t been particularly difficult, as the Buccaneers started 0-4 and the Panthers have a ton of holes on defense when playing any quarterback not named Cooper Rush. Fourth quarter comebacks are largely built on luck, and Watson’s numbers in late and close this season are almost unsustainably good.
That said, the value here is on Cleveland. With Mitchell hurt, the Jets don’t have the receiving depth to make the Browns pay for their lack of a reliable CB2 beyond Ward. Neither team gets much pressure, but Watson has been slightly more effective overall than Smith has from a clean pocket. I like Cleveland’s offensive line slightly more, especially with Dylan Parham (New York’s best pass-blocker and run-blocker) out. The Jets aren’t well-suited to take advantage of the Browns’ lackluster tackling, since Allen has been poor after contact.
Cleveland last started 4-1 in the 2020 season, when it went 11-5 and pushed the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink in the Divisional Round. These Browns don’t have Myles Garrett’s game-breaking talent or Baker Mayfield’s raw playmaking anymore, and several members of that team’s core, including All-Pro offensive lineman Joel Bitinio and running back Nick Chubb, have since retired. The road will only get harder for Cleveland from here, but its hot start will continue for another week.
Best bet: Cleveland Browns Moneyline (+114)
Projected score: Browns 20, Jets 16
