With Justin Jefferson (ankle) inactive for this past Sunday’s win over the Dolphins, T.J. Hockenson was the primary beneficiary for the Vikings. The tight end caught 13-of-13 targets for 119 yards.
Hockenson nearly scored a touchdown, too, but he opted to slide short of the end zone in the final minutes of the game so that Minnesota could drain the lock and secure the win.
While this frustrated fantasy players, Hockenson still went off for 27.9 FPTS and he is the No. 1 scoring tight end for Week 4 heading into Monday Night Football between the Saints and Falcons.
This outburst was directly correlated to Jefferson being sidelined. If he remains out for this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Saints, should we be going back to the well with Hockenson?
Hockenson’s Week 5 Outlook
With Jefferson inactive, Hockenson’s role was incredible. The tight end led the Vikings with a massive 35.1% target share while running a route on 70% of his team’s dropbacks, including four red-zone targets. Hockenson’s 13 total targets rank fourth among all skill players for Week 4 prior to Monday Night Football.
Before this, Hockenson hadn’t seen more than five targets in a game this season and had only cracked double-digit FPTS once in three games. Sunday was the eighth game Hockenson has played with Jefferson inactive since the wideout made his debut in 2020 – Hockenson is amassing 19 FPTS per game in these tilts compared to 10.4 FPTS per game with Jefferson active.
Hockenson is seeing a 29.1% target share with Jefferson inactive, a big increase from the 17.7% target share he is averaging with Jefferson active. Furthermore, Hockenson’s YPPR leaps from 1.6 with Jefferson to 2.6 without him.
Jefferson being out makes a massive difference for Hockenson. If the Vikings remain without the former this Sunday vs. the Saints, Hockenson will be a must-play for this matchup. New Orleans ranks third in pace and Brock Bowers just torched the Saints for 30.6 FPTS in Week 3.
The Saints’ games are producing 54.6 PPG heading into Week 4, so Hockenson could be in store for another big performance if Jefferson misses this tilt. However, if Jefferson plays, Hockenson’s projection will see a huge hit. The tight end will still be viable in this up-tempo spot vs. New Orleans, but his floor and ceiling would be much lower and he would have obviously have far less appeal.
