After a 2-0 start to the season, the Cincinnati Bengals had every reason to feel good about themselves. Since then, they’ve lost two straight games to AFC opponents, including an agonizing loss to the division-rival Steelers. On Sunday, they’ll try to get back on track against a 0-4 Dolphins team firmly in a tank. Can Cincinnati storm into Miami to grab a win and get above .500? Or will the Dolphins shock them with an upset?
Cincinnati is a seven-point road favorite with -345 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Miami is a +275 underdog, with the game total set at 43.5 points.
Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Bengals-Dolphins matchup.
Bengals vs. Dolphins Game Preview
As always, Cincinnati’s problems are manifold and self-inflicted. During Joe Burrow’s tenure, the team hasn’t built a strong offensive line, and that problem continues this year. They’ve improved somewhat as a pass-protecting unit, finishing in the middle of the pack in sacks allowed last year and continuing that trend this season. The tradeoff is that the run game has fallen off a cliff: Cincinnati ranked 29th in total rushing yards last season and 22nd in yards per carry. It hasn’t improved this year, with the Bengals ranked 31st in total rushing yards and 28th in yards per carry. Starting RB Chase Brown has run into walls early and often.
To compensate for the lack of a rushing attack, they’re doing what they do best: leaning on Burrow and his star wideouts, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. So far, it’s working: Burrow is throwing for 292.8 yards per game and completing 71.3% of his passes. Higgins and Chase have both been banged up early on. Both wideouts are questionable for Sunday’s game, which is concerning. But if they play, they’ll surely produce against Miami’s subpar defense.
Miami’s 21st-ranked scoring defense isn’t even close to their biggest problem. The Dolphins are dead last in scoring; they’ve scored 13 points or fewer in every game and have only four offensive touchdowns this year. After an offseason of major offensive cuts, it’s an entirely new-look group, except for De’Von Achane. With Achane out for the season with a torn ACL, the group is a blank slate.
The good news about being dead last in nearly every offensive category is that the only way to go is up. Ollie Gordon II has stepped up in Achane’s offense, and the staff believes he can be an RB1 for the remainder of the season. Production isn’t quite there yet, but new starting quarterback Malik Willis has shown some big-play ability throughout the year. Before his ankle injury, rookie Caleb Douglas flashed potential in his first two games and might take the WR1 job from Malik Washington before the season ends. Head coach Jeff Hafley has made it clear that development and culture-building take priority over wins, and there have been some good signs on the development front.
This whole matchup hinges on Burrow. Cincinnati’s lackluster run game will face a Miami defense that allows only 3.6 yards per carry, the sixth-best mark in the NFL. To move the ball, Cincinnati will need their star QB to cook, and he might have to do it without one or two of his best wideouts. Their defense should handle Miami’s lackluster attack, and Burrow will need to capitalize on the extra possessions.
Bengals vs. Dolphins Pick, Best Bet
I believe Burrow will handle himself well against the Dolphins’ defense. However, their lack of a run game limits their upside and makes the touchdown spread hard to trust. My money here is on the under: Miami’s offense is a big nothing-burger, and Cincinnati’s offense should be one-dimensional. This one will be about as exciting as it looks on paper — which is to say, not very.
